XRP has rebounded from a recent low, but an analysis says the current correction is not yet over in Elliott wave terms and could see another leg down.

On Sept. 9, overseas media outlets including blockchain publication Decrypt reported that XRP’s 1-hour chart has yet to form the structure needed to confirm a trend bottom after the rebound. That raised the possibility that XRP could retest a support zone before entering a full recovery.

The current structure began as XRP recovered near $0.99 in early August. XRP rose from about $0.99 on Aug. 11 to $1.70 on Aug. 22. In the process, its August return reached 28.5 percent, marking the strongest August monthly gain since 2021.

On the 1-hour chart, the price showed an impulsive wave rising quickly in a clear direction. This could correspond to wave 1 in a larger upward move. After hitting $1.70, the market showed overlapping corrective price action rather than a sharp drop. That suggests the market may be seeking balance rather than entering a new major downtrend.

A key support zone was presented at $1.10 to $1.38. Fibonacci retracement levels at $1.38, $1.29, $1.21 and $1.10 sit in that range. At the time of analysis, XRP traded around $1.39, near the upper end of the demand zone.

The rebound from the recent low may appear to signal that the correction has ended. But the current advance consists of three waves, falling short of the five-wave structure that Elliott wave theory generally uses to confirm the end of a correction and a return of buying momentum.

The analysis therefore says the rebound is more likely to be wave B within a larger A-B-C correction. If the earlier drop from $1.70 to the support zone was wave A, the recent rebound would be wave B. That would leave open the possibility that a sustained recovery begins after a wave C decline. It also said there could be additional upside before wave B finishes.

An upper resistance zone was presented at $1.44 to $1.60. Fibonacci levels at $1.44, $1.49, $1.53 and $1.60 sit in that range. If selling strengthens there, the chance of a wave C decline could increase, with downside targets cited at $1.21 and $1.10.

It is difficult to judge XRP’s next move based on Elliott wave structure alone. Other factors, including market fund flows and the regulatory environment, can also affect price.

U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded $18.96 million of net inflows over the past week, and cumulative inflows were tallied at $1.68 billion. Continued inflows are seen as showing institutional demand remains in the current price range.

Trend indicators are also still holding a bullish flow. XRP is trading above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages. The analysis says the short-term trend has shifted from bearish to bullish and the larger upward structure is also being maintained. Even so, the possibility of a short-term additional decline remains.

In the current bullish scenario, the key price level is $1.10. A drop to $1.21 or $1.10 would fit a potential wave C scenario. Until XRP forms a complete five-wave upward structure, there is room to view the rebound as a temporary recovery, and it is hard to rule out further correction.