Search results for Tarek Mansour
Crypto
Polymarket profits concentrated as top 3.14 percent take more than 30 percent
A study analysing all Polymarket trades from 2023 to 2025 concluded the platform’s accuracy reflects an informed minority rather than the “wisdom of crowds.” The paper examined 1.72 million accounts across 210,322 markets and about $13.76 billion in trading. It classified 3.14 percent of accounts as skilled winners, who with market makers took more than 30 percent of profits. About 67 percent of accounts were classified as unskilled or unlucky losers and absorbed all losses.
Crypto
Prediction market Kalshi faces lawsuit over Khamenei market \'death clause\' dispute
Prediction market platform Kalshi has been hit with a class-action lawsuit over a market tied to whether former Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei would step down, Cointelegraph reported on March 7. Plaintiffs say a “death clause” was not properly disclosed to users and that, as a result, winning traders did not receive payouts. Kalshi voided trading after Khamenei’s death and did not resolve the market as “Yes.”
Crypto
Kalshi prediction market outperforms traditional models on rate forecasts, Fed paper finds
U.S. Federal Reserve researchers assessed prediction market platform Kalshi as a useful tool for measuring macroeconomic expectations, saying it offers high-frequency updates and detailed probability distributions. A paper found Kalshi improved CPI expectations versus the Bloomberg consensus and produced more accurate policy-rate forecasts than fed funds futures on the eve of decisions. The authors said surveys and derivatives have limits and called the analysis preliminary and not directly used for monetary policy.