[DigitalToday reporter Hyunwoo Choo] The keyword that defined the digital asset market over the past week was the U.S. Digital Asset Market Structure Act, known as the Clarity Act. As the Clarity Act drifted, the White House and regulators expanded direct contact with the industry. In South Korea, the implementation of the revised Act on Reporting and Using Specified Financial Transaction Information raised barriers to entry. Money kept moving regardless of regulation, from sovereign wealth funds to stablecoin proof-of-concept projects. Two milestones are expected to be a watershed for gauging the market’s next direction: a Senate procedural vote on the Clarity Act on Sept. 15 and South Korea’s implementation of the revised law on Aug. 20.

• Trump meets Coinbase and Ripple at the White House as the Clarity bill wavers • Galaxy Digital cuts odds of Clarity Act passing in 2026 to 10 percent

The odds of the Clarity Act passing within the year fell to about 19 percent on Aug. 15 from 82 percent on Feb. 19, and Galaxy Digital lowered its estimate to 10 percent. Alex Thorn (알렉스 손), head of research at Galaxy Digital, pointed out that if the Senate does not move into a vote to begin procedures immediately after returning, the time available for processing would shrink further. In practice, the Senate has only 2 to 3 weeks it can use.

• U.S. SEC puts the brakes on crypto regulation talks; was it mindful of the Clarity Act? • A closer look at the U.S. Clarity Act: "The ultra-bullish bitcoin thesis has been exaggerated"

As the legislative vacuum lengthened, President Donald Trump, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig and SEC Chairman Paul Atkins called in Coinbase, Ripple, Chainlink, Kraken, Gemini, Andreessen Horowitz, and executives from the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq at the White House on Aug. 19 and moved to apply pressure behind the scenes.

By contrast, Isaiah Austin (이사야 오스틴), an analyst at Bitcoin Magazine, said the current Senate amendment has shifted to a full rewrite of the original 256 pages, removing key provisions that would codify bitcoin as a "commodity" and bar the Federal Reserve from issuing a retail CBDC. He assessed it as effectively closer to an "altcoin rescue bill." Questions about effectiveness after passage also remain because while total assets at U.S. commercial banks are about 20 times bitcoin’s total market capitalization, CFTC staffing fell 21 percent over the past year.

• Bloomberg strategist: "Bitcoin could fall to $10,000" • Bitcoin at $1 million in 2030: "Mathematically impossible" • Saylor: "Money is economic energy"; bitcoin is the best store of value • Swan CEO sees a bitcoin low in October, offers $130,000 before the 2028 halving

Separate from the Clarity Act’s drift, bitcoin traded around $63,000 throughout the week. There are 659 days left until the fifth halving, scheduled for spring 2028, when the block reward will be cut in half to 1.5625 BTC from 3.125 BTC. Technical weakness also appeared, with the weekly relative strength index (RSI) sliding to 39.64. Instability in the Middle East was again highlighted by demands for war reparations between the United States and Iran, adding steady downward pressure.

The clash between bearish and bullish views was sharper than ever. Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone warned it could fall to $10,000, citing a drying up of ETF inflows and bitcoin’s lagging relative performance versus U.S. stocks. Markus Thielen (마르쿠스 틸렌) of 10x Research said about $15 trillion in additional capital would be needed over the next 4 years to reach $1 million, calling it "mathematically impossible."

By contrast, Michael Saylor reaffirmed his stance that bitcoin is the best store of value, defining it as "digital monetary energy" with a fixed total supply of 21 million. Corey Klippsten (코리 클립스텐), CEO of Swan Bitcoin, forecast it could form a low around $53,000 to $57,000 in October and then recover to $130,000 before the 2028 halving. Differences in interpretation over whether this correction is the bottom of the next upcycle or the start of a structural bear market are splitting the market.

• XRP breaks below $1 again; Peter Brandt: "Even if I received XRP, I would immediately convert it to bitcoin" • Despite a 73 percent plunge in XRP, bottom calls persist; why forecasts as high as $11 emerged

XRP was the weakest-performing asset this week. It slid to $0.9992 on Aug. 16, falling below the psychological $1 support level for the first time since November 2024. That marks a 72.6 percent drop from its all-time high of $3.65 in July 2025.

Well-known chartist Peter Brandt (피터 브랜트) voiced blunt skepticism, saying, "Who on earth cares about XRP. Even if I received it, I would immediately convert it to bitcoin." Aaron Arnold (애런 아널드) of Altcoin Daily said, "The company Ripple is optimistic, but XRP has not achieved much since 2017," pointing to a structural problem in which the company’s growth and the token’s value are separated.

Still, bottom calls among technical analysts are also strong. Ali Martinez (알리 마르티네즈) set $1.06 as a short-term target based on a Tom DeMark buy signal on the monthly chart. Analyst ChartNerd cited similarities to past 70 to 90 percent pullbacks that preceded major bull runs and mentioned a potential rebound to as high as $11.

In fact, spot XRP ETFs saw net inflows totaling about $1.5 billion from April to July, and whale wallet deposits to Binance have also increased steadily regardless of the price decline. A contradictory phase continues in which short-term price weakness and long-term fund flows collide head-on.

• Grayscale research head: "Ethereum is a country run by issuing ETH instead of collecting taxes" • DonAlt, who called XRP’s surge, now starts buying ethereum

Trader DonAlt, who accurately predicted XRP’s 700 percent rise in 2024, said he has started buying ethereum in the $1,900 range. He set $2,000 to $2,200 as resistance and $1,700 to $1,800 as an additional buying zone. While floating $10,000 as an unofficial macro target, he set a much more conservative profit-taking target at $3,000, about a 57 percent return.

Separate from market price expectations, a debate is also unfolding inside the ethereum ecosystem over its fiscal structure. Grayscale research head Zack Pandl (잭 판들) compared ethereum to "a small country that raises funds by issuing ETH rather than collecting taxes." He noted that validators receive about 700,000 ETH in rewards annually, while cash payments to core developers are insufficient.

• With trading volume down, Upbit and Bithumb earnings plunge; all-out push for business diversification in the second half • Raising the bar for reporting by digital asset operators; screening to cover major shareholders, staffing and IT systems • Won stablecoins move into proof stage as industry tie-ups accelerate

In South Korea, the revised Act on Reporting and Using Specified Financial Transaction Information taking effect on Aug. 20 emerged as the biggest variable. The scope of major shareholder suitability screening expands from representatives and executives to the largest shareholder, key shareholders with 10 percent or more voting rights, and related parties of the largest shareholder. The laws used as the basis for screening newly add the Monopoly Regulation and Fair Trade Act and the Act on the Aggravated Punishment of Specific Crimes. Reporting for governance changes switches from ex post notification, within 14 days after a change, to advance notification, 30 days before a change. Requirements for anti-money laundering staffing and IT systems are also strengthened.

Still, an exception clause that excludes cases where the degree of violation is minor from disqualification means some analysis says it could work in favor of Naver Financial’s push to make Dunamu a wholly owned subsidiary.

First-half earnings released during the same period were modest. Dunamu’s operating revenue was 408.1 billion won, down 49.1 percent year on year, and operating profit fell 79.7 percent to 111.5 billion won. Bithumb posted revenue of 168.8 billion won, down 48.7 percent, and operating profit of 14.9 billion won, down 83.4 percent, while it swung to a net loss of 108.7 billion won. The result reflects the combined impact of lower trading value, shrinking global liquidity and domestic and overseas investors shifting away from AI and semiconductor stocks.

Banks, card companies and fintech firms are accelerating competition in proof-of-concept projects for won stablecoins even before regulations are finalized. After 12 related memorandums of understanding and PoC projects in the first half, 7 more were announced in the second half within 44 days. Concrete commercialization attempts are continuing, including Coupang and Woori Bank’s real-time settlement PoC, BC Card’s USDC payment PoC for foreigners, and a Hyundai Card-Hyundai Motor PoC for USDT transfers between their U.S. and Mexico units.