A forecast says the chance of the Clarity Act, a U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, passing before the midterm elections is only about 10 percent.

CoinPost, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Tuesday that Solana Policy Institute CEO Miller Whitehouse-Levine (밀러 화이트하우스-레빈) said the Senate has continued discussions for more than a year but is effectively unable to move because of its August recess.

The Clarity Act is a market structure bill that would clarify regulatory jurisdiction over cryptocurrencies between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The industry has seen it as legislation that would set the broad framework for U.S. cryptocurrency regulation, but concerns are growing that the odds of passage could fall further as the session enters its latter stages.

Whitehouse-Levine assessed the current situation by saying, "In the status quo, we are in the August recess and cannot move." He also said a consent vote to begin consideration is only the first step among multiple procedures, adding, "I am hopeful, but I am realistic."

The outlook is more conservative than prediction markets. Polymarket reflects a 21 percent chance the bill will pass this year, and Kalshi reflects 23 percent. Both markets, however, have fallen sharply from around 50 percent in less than a month. That suggests expectations among market participants for the bill to advance are cooling quickly.

Traditional finance interests are also behind rising uncertainty over the bill. Whitehouse-Levine said the current legislative attempt is effectively the sixth push for a market structure bill. He said presidential involvement is adding political complexity for Democrats, banks are objecting to a stablecoin interest-income provision, and the securities and derivatives industry is also concerned about the impact on its business.

As legislative delays lengthen, attention is also turning to independent moves by regulators. The SEC recently put forward a 'Regulation Crypto Asset' proposal to exempt some registration requirements. Ripple chief legal officer Stuart Alderoty (스튜어트 알데로티) said the SEC and the CFTC will not stop making rules even if the bill stalls. Cooperation between the two agencies has been cited as a positive factor, but the industry is still maintaining that legislation should come first.

Alderoty said it would be difficult to build a sustainable framework through regulators' rules alone. He said legislation must be the top priority and warned that if the effort fails, cryptocurrency companies could move their bases overseas and the United States could lose jobs, investment and innovation. He also mentioned that U.S. cryptocurrency-related employment is about 232,000 and its contribution to economic activity reaches $55 billion.

The next watershed date is Sept. 15. Senate Republicans decided on the 7th of this month to postpone the vote to mid-September. Alderoty said, "The motion to proceed is scheduled to be taken up on the Senate floor on Sept. 15," and added, "To open the gate, we need 60 votes in favor." He said, "This vote will be a turning point that shows whether we can keep moving forward."

As a result, the Clarity Act is expected to test its legislative momentum based on the outcome of the mid-September vote. For now, U.S. cryptocurrency market structure legislation remains highly uncertain as Senate scheduling delays, resistance from the financial sector and clashes of industry interests overlap at the same time.