[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Prediction markets are reflecting a 70 percent-plus chance that the U.S. Federal Reserve holds its benchmark interest rate steady in September.

On Aug. 17 (local time), blockchain media outlet Decrypt reported that major prediction market platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi and Myriad are putting the highest odds on a rate hold at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

In Polymarket's "September Fed Decision" market, the probability of a rate hold was tallied at 74 percent. The chance of a 0.25 percentage point increase was 25 percent, while the probability of a rate cut was around 1 percent.

A similar trend appeared on Kalshi, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The probability of a September rate hold was priced at 73.5 percent, and Myriad was at about 71 percent. The outcome of the contract will be confirmed after the FOMC meeting held on Sept. 15-16.

It is also notable that the gap among the three platforms is not large. This suggests that a view has formed across the broader market that the September meeting will end with rates held steady.

The Fed decision draws attention because the benchmark interest rate determines funding costs across financial markets. The policy rate serves as a baseline for borrowing costs and directly affects how much capital investors allocate to risk assets. When rates rise, borrowing costs increase and the appeal of returns on safe assets such as U.S. Treasuries grows, which can pull money out of speculative assets. When rates fall, liquidity can flow back into risk assets such as technology stocks and cryptocurrencies.

That sensitivity has repeated in the crypto market this year. Bitcoin and ether have recently swung around the Fed's rate-hold phase, and earlier this year prices also fell as strong employment data weakened expectations for rate cuts. The market has viewed a hold as its base case, while also staying alert to the possibility of an unexpected hike.

The current outlook for a hold also connects with the July meeting outcome. At the time, the FOMC kept rates at 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent, but the vote split 9-3. That meant views remained within the Fed that tighter policy was needed. In a Reuters survey, about 70 percent of economists expected no rate change for the rest of 2026.

The next turning point investors are watching is the Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting. The Fed statement will be released on Sept. 16. Prediction markets are now converging on the view that "nothing will change," but in the actual decision, not only whether rates are held but also the vote split within the committee and signals on the future rate path are expected to act as market variables.