Prospects that the U.S. crypto market structure bill known as the Clarity Act will be enacted by this fall stand at just 25 percent, a forecast showed.

Bitcoin Magazine reported on Aug. 10 that TD Securities made the assessment, reflecting delays in a Senate vote and the possibility of Democrats blocking the bill.

The key variable is the schedule. The U.S. Congress had sought to hold the key vote on the long-debated bill before a five-week recess, but last week’s timetable was pushed back and the Senate vote has slipped to September. TD Securities said the bill’s failure to pass before summer has sharply reduced the odds of action in September as well.

The bill includes provisions to establish a federal rule system that would apply across the U.S. crypto market. It passed the House of Representatives last year and Democrats and Republicans have continued work on revisions, but political clashes over procedure and specific provisions have resurfaced in recent days.

TD Securities said, "The bill is not dead, but the road ahead has become more difficult." It added, "We see a 75 percent chance that the Clarity Act will not be enacted into law by this fall."

TD Securities said Democrats could derail a second cloture vote even if a first cloture vote in September passes, because Republicans may block Democratic amendments on ethics and anti-money laundering provisions. It also raised the possibility that a cloture vote may not be held at all. Cloture is the Senate procedure to end debate on a bill and move to a final vote.

Points of contention in politics are also clear. The latest draft includes language banning government officials from promoting cryptocurrencies or gaining financial benefits from doing so. The provision was drafted jointly by Democrats and Republicans and began circulating in July. Still, Democratic figures who have criticised the bill from the outset, such as Senator Elizabeth Warren (엘리자베스 워런), argue that new legislation could benefit the president and the president’s family.

Interests in the market and in mainstream finance are also intertwined. The bill has support not only from crypto companies but also from large financial firms such as Goldman Sachs and Fidelity, as well as law enforcement groups. As the bill would set basic rules for the U.S. crypto market, how Senate discussions resume in September is expected to be a key point to watch for the industry.

In this situation, the September Senate schedule has taken on meaning beyond the timing of a vote. Whether a first procedural vote is held, and whether bipartisan agreement holds even if it is held, is expected to determine the bill’s fate. If Republicans and Democrats clash again over ethics and anti-money laundering provisions, the market structure bill that passed the House may be less likely to clear the threshold for fall legislation.