Bitcoin regained the $64,000 level and maintained a limited upward trend. The move was seen as driven by a sharp drop in international oil prices and a revival in risk appetite as expectations grew for easing tensions between the United States and Iran. Still, bitcoin’s upside momentum lagged the stock market, and whether it breaks through key resistance is expected to determine its near-term direction.

On Aug. 4 local time, blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported that bitcoin (BTC) rose as high as $64,176 on Bitstamp, up about 1 percent on the day.

The market assessed that the possibility of easing conflict between the United States and Iran spurred risk-asset investment sentiment. Expectations also grew that concerns about disruptions to oil supply would ease as tensions over the Strait of Hormuz cooled.

A direct catalyst was remarks by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. In an interview with CNBC, Bessent mentioned that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz "could happen today or tomorrow". U.S. President Donald Trump also said the day before that talks were under way and that reopening the strait could be possible "as soon as tomorrow".

International oil prices fell sharply. West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude prices fell 4.8 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively, to their lowest levels since July 13. The decline boosted expectations of easing inflationary pressure and also supported U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 index rose to 7,713 to set a record high, and the total market capitalisation of U.S. stocks topped $70 trillion for the first time.

Market participants see whether oil stabilises as also affecting expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy. Inside the Fed, differences of opinion over the direction of interest rates persist.

According to CME Group's FedWatch, the market is pricing in a 56.7 percent chance of a 0.25 percentage point rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in September. Bloomberg macro strategist Michael Boul analysed that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has offered only limited signals on the policy path, and that upcoming economic data, oil prices and bond market moves will determine policy expectations.

Bitcoin’s reaction was not as strong as the stock market’s. BTC/USD recovered the $64,000 level, but gains were capped near $64,388, the 21-day simple moving average. On short-term charts, the 50-day moving average served as support and helped prevent further declines.

On-chain data, however, showed signs of accumulation. CryptoQuant analysed that 'strong accumulation' has been taking place in the bitcoin market recently. Holdings by investors with an average purchase price in the $62,000 to $65,000 range were estimated at about 155,000 bitcoins, about 0.7 percent of total bitcoin supply.

CryptoQuant assessed that, even in bearish stretches, buying absorbed supply more strongly than large-scale selling. It analysed that as investors accumulated bitcoin during the price adjustment, the demand base at current price levels is being maintained.

Market focus is expected to concentrate on two variables going forward. Key questions are whether discussions on reopening the Strait of Hormuz will lead to an actual deal, and how the drop in oil prices will change expectations for the Fed’s September rate decision.

Bitcoin is currently seeing buying in the $62,000 to $65,000 range, but if it fails to break above resistance near $64,388, range-bound trading could continue for some time. If it moves above that area, analysis suggests it could secure additional upward momentum.