Bitcoin is searching for direction around the $63,000 level in the first week of August, as the global macro backdrop and crypto-specific risks are shaking the market at the same time. The possibility of coordinated U.S.-Japan action to defend the yen, the release of U.S. jobs data and the fallout from a hardware wallet hack have emerged as key variables for near-term price moves.

Cointelegraph, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Aug. 3 that markets are watching macroeconomic uncertainty, security issues and the potential for seasonal adjustments as recent bearish factors for bitcoin.

The most closely watched variable is the possibility of U.S. and Japanese intervention in foreign exchange markets. As the yen approached 164 per dollar last week, the United States and Japan moved to coordinate a response to ease yen weakness. QCP Capital analysed the move as the first joint U.S.-Japan FX intervention since 2011, and the first joint operation to support the yen since 1998. It attached significance to the New York Federal Reserve acting in its role as fiscal agent of the U.S. Treasury, rather than as an independent monetary policy decision by the Federal Reserve.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent left open the possibility of additional intervention. He said Friday's joint FX action responded to disorderly yen moves, and that the United States has been working continuously with Japan's Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan and could take further joint action if needed.

Markets are watching how such FX intervention could affect the global liquidity environment. Changes in dollar liquidity, in particular, could affect bitcoin prices, which are classified as a risk asset, according to the analysis.

The biggest economic event this week is U.S. July nonfarm payrolls. In June, job growth came to just 57,000, far below the market estimate of 114,000, and the prior two months' employment figures were revised down by a combined 74,000. At the time, signs of a cooling labour market boosted expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and supported bitcoin. Continuum Economics forecast July nonfarm payrolls would improve to 120,000, but suggested the unemployment rate could rise to 4.3 percent from 4.2 percent.

Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are also a variable. U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned the possibility of negotiations with Iran and delayed additional attacks, after which international oil prices plunged. Both U.S. West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude fell more than 8 percent. Markets are watching whether easing geopolitical tensions could restore risk appetite.

Seasonal weakness in U.S. stocks is also weighing on bitcoin. Mosaic Asset Company analysed that seasonal headwinds could persist in equity markets through October ahead of U.S. midterm elections. In July, the S&P 500 fell 0.8 percent and the Nasdaq Composite slid 3.2 percent for its worst July performance since 2006. A sharp drop in semiconductor shares, pressure from corporate earnings and worries over the cost of large-scale AI investment combined to erase $620 billion in market value in two days.

Within the crypto market, the Coldcard hardware wallet hacking incident has emerged as a new variable. An attack tied to a security vulnerability that has existed since 2021 is estimated to have led to an outflow of about $90 million worth of bitcoin as of Aug. 3.

Alex Thorn (알렉스 손) of Galaxy Research advised Coldcard users to move funds out of affected wallets as quickly as possible and use high fees so attackers cannot prioritise their transactions.

Even so, no large-scale panic-driven movement has been confirmed so far. According to CryptoQuant data, net inflows of bitcoin to exchanges came to 34,932 BTC on Aug. 1 and 8,768 BTC on Aug. 3. Inflows increased but did not deviate significantly from the range of the past month.

Accumulation by long-term holders is instead being maintained. CryptoQuant said its 30-day long-term holder supply change indicator shows about 220,400 BTC moving into the long-term holder segment, and that accumulation by long-term investors is exceeding the amount being released to the market.

Caution still remains in price action. Bitcoin rose 7.4 percent in July, but markets are raising the possibility of seasonal weakness in August and concerns about a repeat of long-term down cycles. Rekt Capital identified $65,827, the 50-month exponential moving average, as a key resistance level and said whether that area is broken would determine the direction ahead. In the derivatives market, there was also talk that a price rebound could trigger short liquidations around $64,200.

In the end, the bitcoin market this week has entered a phase in which it must absorb U.S. jobs data, coordinated action to defend the yen, changes in risk appetite linked to the Middle East and whether funds move after the Coldcard hack, all at the same time. Downward pressure continues in the short term, but accumulation by long-term holders is being maintained, and the direction bitcoin makes around the $63,000 level is expected to determine the next trend.