Bitcoin's (BTC) market cycle low is likely to form in the fourth quarter of this year, a forecast showed. Repeated cycles after halving events and on-chain data both point to the end of the year as the most likely bottom zone, the analysis said.

On Aug. 3, blockchain outlet Cryptopolitan reported that on-chain analysis firms and market analysts expect the low for this bitcoin cycle in the fourth quarter of 2026.

The forecast comes amid a weak cryptocurrency market in the first half of this year. The global cryptocurrency market capitalisation fell to about $2.18 trillion, and bitcoin extended its decline, down more than 27 percent from the start of the year. The market is therefore assessing that the current price has entered a zone closer to the low than the previous peak.

Forecast timing differs somewhat by research group. Glassnode said early accumulation signals have appeared since the third quarter, raising the possibility that a bottom is forming. Mudrex, by contrast, cited an analysis by market analyst Anupam Dodeja and picked October to December as the most likely bottom zone. The expected price range in that case is $50,000 to $55,000.

Recent attention has also focused on bitcoin rebounding after falling at one point to around $60,000. Analysts, however, interpreted it as a process in which bargain buying supports prices rather than a signal that a bottom has been confirmed. Motley Fool also assessed that bitcoin is going through its strongest bear-market phase since 2022.

The key basis for the forecast is the halving cycle. In the past, bitcoin has repeatedly followed a pattern of forming a bottom about 24 to 28 months after a halving. Applying that to the fourth halving in April 2024 narrows the timing of a bottom to between the middle of this year and the end of the year. Calculations that also apply the typical bear-market duration of 12 to 15 months after the October 2025 peak suggest the bottom is likely to form in the fourth quarter of this year.

Seasonality and past cases also point in a similar direction. Bitcoin shifted trend after major capitulation, including at about $3,200 in late 2018 and about $15,500 in late 2022. Mudrex said major on-chain analysts including CryptoQuant, Glassnode, Benjamin Cowen and PlanB are also placing more weight on the possibility of a year-end bottom.

The outlook, however, is based on the assumption that macroeconomic conditions do not deteriorate significantly. Analysts did not rule out the possibility that the timing of a bottom could be delayed until the first quarter of 2027 if a recession deepens or tougher regulation becomes reality. That scenario could bring a bigger decline and a delayed recovery at the same time, the analysis said.

By contrast, the situation could change if institutional inflows through spot ETFs continue more strongly than expected. The market is also discussing the possibility that, if ETF demand absorbs heavy selling pressure, bitcoin may not plunge by more than 70 percent as in past bear markets, and an early bottom could form this summer. Analysts assessed that as an exceptional scenario with no past precedent.

In the longer term, technical factors are also drawing attention. Motley Fool pointed to quantum computing as one of the biggest risk factors in the next cycle. If quantum computers with sufficient performance emerge, existing cryptography could be threatened. In response, bitcoin took a first step toward introducing quantum-resistant technology through BIP-360 approved in February this year, and the industry is increasingly seeing a need to expand related research and investment.

Ultimately, the market sees the fourth quarter of this year as the most likely bottom zone based on the halving cycle. The analysis said the actual timing of the low could vary depending on institutional demand through ETFs, macroeconomic trends, the regulatory environment and technical factors such as quantum computing.