Bitcoin rose about 8 percent over July, ending the month higher despite worries about interest rate hikes, selling pressure in artificial intelligence (AI)-related assets and a major security incident.

On Aug. 1 (local time), blockchain outlet Cryptopolitan reported that markets now see jobs data and whether inflows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) resume as key variables for the next direction.

Markets focused on the fact that leveraged positions were largely unwound after a sharp drop in late June. At the time, bitcoin fell below $58,000 and there was widespread liquidation of excessive borrowed positions. An assessment emerged that the risk of another sharp fall eased as leverage exposure in derivatives markets declined.

Average daily liquidations since early July were lower than peaks of $400 million to $900 million seen several times this year. This structural shift is cited as a reason bitcoin held up even after the U.S. Federal Reserve began its rate-hike phase.

Moves against other risk assets also diverged. On the last trading day of July, bitcoin and ether fell sharply, but South Korea's KOSPI index rose more than 15 percent and U.S. stock index futures hit record highs. It means crypto faced its own pressure even as risk appetite broadly recovered.

Security setbacks also continued. Coldcard, a major self-custody hardware wallet company, suffered a major security breach. At least $38 million worth of bitcoin was reported stolen, and Galaxy Research estimated losses could be about $70 million in crypto assets. Even so, bitcoin prices kept a monthly uptrend.

A key point to watch is the possibility of increased volatility in August. Some analysts saw the market tug-of-war between rate hikes and expectations for future rate cuts continuing. One analyst said investors are caught between a dovish scenario and a hawkish scenario, and that this setup is weighing on high-volatility assets.

Bitfinex analysts also expected a similar pattern to continue in August. They said market positioning is skewed to net buying but with limited strength, and that the possibility of a Fed rate hike is still priced in. They said, "Aggressive institutional buying has not yet emerged," noting that bitcoin futures open interest showed little change all month at around 750,000 BTC. It means traders were cautious about increasing leverage despite expectations for new investor inflows.

The market's base scenario is rangebound trading. Short-term volatility could be limited if Treasury yields stay within a certain range or if ETF flows return to steady net inflows. If the dollar stays strong, yields rise and ETF inflows are weak, the price could face more pressure. The view is that even if the Fed delivers a neutral message, upside momentum could weaken if supply and demand do not follow.

The burden is also growing for corporate holders. As of late July, Strategy, which held 843,775 BTC, recorded losses for a second straight quarter as it was heavily affected by recent price moves. According to results disclosed on July 30, the company posted $8.22 billion in net unrealised losses, of which $8.32 billion was in the second quarter alone. Michael Saylor (마이클 세일러), Strategy's chairman, said it bought additional bitcoin and Treasury securities during the second quarter and reduced the size of convertible bond issuance.

Against this backdrop, both companies and institutional investors are waiting for signs of a demand recovery. The fact that ETF-related expectations seen in early July did not translate into buying as strong as initially expected remains a key variable for the August market.