[Digital Today reporter Hyunwoo Choo] Bitcoin (BTC) has entered August trading, known for high volatility, after staging a rebound in July. U.Today, a cryptocurrency outlet, reported on Friday that bitcoin’s average August return since 2013 is slightly above 1 percent, but the median is negative. It said only a few strong markets, such as a 65 percent surge in 2017, lifted the average, while most years ended with losses.

In August 2022, it fell nearly 9 percent, and it dropped more than 6 percent in August 2023. August 2024 saw only a slight gain. After a sharp rebound from a June low, bitcoin traded sideways for most of July in the $63,000 to $65,000 range. U.Today said it remains in a recovery phase rather than a confirmed uptrend.

The current price is seeing balanced buying and selling near the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, but the 200-day moving average is still pointing downward around $73,000, keeping a cautious view on the longer-term trend. The relative strength index (RSI) is also holding around the neutral 50 level, suggesting it could tilt in either direction depending on where volume builds.

U.Today said summer trading activity tends to slow and liquidity falls, meaning prices can swing sharply even with relatively small buying or selling pressure.

Another variable is investors’ position adjustments ahead of September, historically seen as the worst month. Buyers are first aiming to regain resistance at the 200-day moving average and break above the $67,000 level, and if it clears that, attention could shift to the $72,000 range. If it fails to hold current levels, it could be pushed back toward the $60,000 support line.

Meanwhile, Yuya Hasegawa (하세가와 유야), an analyst at major Japanese cryptocurrency exchange bitbank, said in the firm’s weekly report that the biggest factor for bitcoin’s move next week will be the direction of a congressional vote on a U.S. cryptocurrency regulation bill, the Clarity Act. With the U.S. Congress set to begin its summer recess on Aug. 7, this week will be a watershed for whether the bill passes within the year, the report said. It also reported news that the Senate’s ruling and opposition parties agreed on July 30 to an amendment to ethics rules, but securing 60 votes remains key as issues such as stablecoin measures still remain.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided at its July 30 meeting to hold the benchmark interest rate steady for a fifth straight time. Some members backed a hike citing rising international oil prices, highlighting internal differences, and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh (케빈 워시) said rising nominal and real rates were already having a tightening effect. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate has slowed, but international oil prices have continued to run high on geopolitical risks, leaving a split between easing inflation and rising oil prices, Hasegawa said.

Overall, the bitcoin market in August is expected to be driven less by seasonal patterns and more by progress on the Clarity Act, policy signals from the Fed and whether it breaks through key technical resistance levels.