A metric combining bitcoin spot and futures demand is short by about 127,000 BTC, suggesting it still lacks strength to resume an uptrend, an analysis said.

CoinPost, a blockchain media outlet, reported on July 28 that CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said on X, formerly Twitter, that a combined indicator of bitcoin spot and futures demand remains in negative territory.

The key point is that even if bitcoin prices have recently shown a relatively stable trend, it is hard to view that as a signal of demand recovery. Darkfost said the market currently resembles a structure in which at least one of spot or futures demand keeps shrinking, or in which only speculative futures demand temporarily supports prices.

He said this resembles a pattern seen in the previous bear market. For a sustained trend shift, spot and futures demand need to move together to form a "demand-side alignment," he said. In a chart he released, periods when spot and futures demand moved in the same direction were marked in green, and he said those periods corresponded to bitcoin bull markets.

It is also a burden that combined demand is at around minus 127,000 BTC. Darkfost assessed that the figure remains too weak to support a resumption of the uptrend. That means regaining rebound momentum requires more than short-term fund inflows into the futures market and must be accompanied by spot demand.

He also issued a warning signal about recent price moves. Darkfost said the market has become somewhat calmer due less to a "full-scale recovery in demand" than to "seller exhaustion." Selling pressure has weakened, easing sharp declines, but he judged that sufficient new buying has not come in.

He therefore left open the possibility that the correction phase could continue. He said the correction could become prolonged if the current flow continues without passing through an extremely low-demand period that appears alongside panic selling. He added that the current range-bound movement that has continued for months should be closely watched.

The analysis also aligns with long-term holder (LTH) indicators. Long-term holders who have held for at least 6 months hold about 16.3 million BTC, and their average acquisition price is estimated at about $49,400. Their unrealised profit rate has also fallen to around 30 percent. That means profit room has shrunk significantly compared with about 340 percent in January 2025.

For market participants, it is difficult to conclude a trend shift based on short-term price stability alone. Whether spot and futures demand recover at the same time, and whether the current sideways period leads to actual buying inflows, remain key variables that will determine bitcoin's next direction.