Bitcoin turned lower as expectations faded for progress on the U.S. crypto regulation bill known as the "Clarity bill".

Bitcoin traded around $63,600 on July 28, local time, and at one point slipped to $62,784 intraday, Bitcoin Magazine reported.

The decline is seen as stemming from the market again lowering the likelihood that Congress will pass the Clarity bill this year. On prediction-market platform Polymarket, the chance the bill would be signed within the year is reflected at 35 percent.

If passed, the Clarity bill would set out a regulatory framework for the broader U.S. crypto market. Market participants have focused on the possibility that passage could partially ease regulatory uncertainty. If the schedule slips, the structure could lead to greater price volatility.

The current sticking point is disagreements within Congress. Large financial institutions such as Fidelity and Goldman Sachs support the new bill, but some Democrats remain opposed to the current version. Some Democratic lawmakers said in a statement last week that the current bill is not sufficient.

The congressional schedule is also a variable. Some lawmakers believe the bill must be handled before Congress enters its August recess. With Congress heading into a five-week recess, it is set to vote this week on multiple items including a Russia energy sanctions bill, raising attention to whether the Clarity bill can move to an actual vote in the near term.

The bill passed the House last year with bipartisan support, but a prolonged stalemate has continued in 2026. Democrats' concerns about ethics language and stablecoin yields at major banks are key variables, and a bank lobbying group has argued that banks could lose their deposit base if crypto exchanges offer attractive yields to customers.

An amendment introduced last week reflects those ethics concerns by including a ban on government officials and their families issuing and promoting crypto. Republicans are seeking to secure bipartisan support early this week to advance the bill. If it passes, a regulatory framework for the U.S. crypto market would be established.

The market is more sensitive to the bill's chances of advancing than to its direction. While it has a record of passing the House last year and has support from major financial institutions, whether it will be legislated within the year remains uncertain as Democratic opposition has not been fully resolved. As a result, bitcoin prices may continue to be influenced by the congressional vote schedule and whether progress is made toward bipartisan agreement.