[DigitalToday reporter Seung-a Yoo] China’s DRAM chipmaker ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) could raise its share of the global DRAM market to 18% by 2028, a forecast said.

On July 27, the South China Morning Post reported that Nomura set a target price of 116 yuan for CXMT and said the stock could more than double from its July 27 close.

Market attention is not limited to the share price surge just after listing. CXMT, the largest DRAM maker in mainland China, rose 466% after listing and closed at 49 yuan, while its market capitalisation swelled to 3.28 trillion yuan. That is about $484.6 billion, larger than Intel at about $464.0 billion.

The key is expanding production capacity. Nomura estimated CXMT’s global DRAM share could rise from about 10% now to about 18% by the end of 2028. The forecast assumes a rise in wafer starts. Monthly 12-inch wafer capacity at its Hefei and Beijing plants is expected to increase to 280,000 wafers by the end of 2025, 350,000 by the end of 2026 and 550,000 by the end of 2028. A new line in Shanghai is also expected to be added.

Demand conditions are also supportive. As demand for artificial intelligence computing increases, DRAM inventories are staying at an unusually low level. Citi estimated DRAM supplier inventories at 2.7 weeks. That is far below the usual level of 5 weeks or more.

China’s domestic market is seen as a bigger opportunity for CXMT. China accounted for about a quarter of global DRAM demand in 2025, but domestic production was estimated to meet only about 30% of its own demand. That implies heavy reliance on imports by Chinese electronics companies. Bank of America said China’s memory chip imports in June totalled $32.0 billion, up 250% from a year earlier. Device makers and cloud companies in mainland China continue to rely on South Korean suppliers for both premium and mainstream products.

Still, the growth path is not smooth. The biggest weakness is high-bandwidth memory (HBM). HBM is a high-value DRAM used with AI processors, but CXMT currently has no sales in that segment. Most of its current sales come from mainstream DRAM for smartphones and PCs. Whether it can develop HBM and commercialise it to a level it can sell is seen as a proving ground for narrowing the gap with Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron Technology.

Nomura estimated CXMT’s core production technology lags overseas leading DRAM makers by about 5 years. It also said CXMT is expected to secure mass production capability for HBM3 from 2027, but added that customer qualification could take time. That means expanding capacity alone will not be enough to change its market standing, and it must win actual orders for high-performance products.

Sourcing equipment and materials is also a burden. Nomura estimated about 40% of CXMT’s semiconductor manufacturing equipment is made in China. That means a significant part of the remainder falls under the influence of external regulations. In particular, if U.S.-led export controls tighten further for advanced lithography equipment and photoresists, it could constrain manufacturing upgrades.

That has made CXMT’s next step clear. It must broaden share by increasing output of mainstream DRAM, while also ramping HBM production and passing customer qualification to upgrade its product portfolio. Whether it can secure stable access to advanced equipment and materials remains a key variable in boosting its presence in the global memory market.