Apple is approaching Chinese memory maker ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), but some say CXMT’s current standing has already changed from the past, making it harder to shake up memory prices and supply leadership.

On July 27, ITmedia reported that as of 2024 CXMT’s monthly DRAM wafer output exceeded 100,000, effectively reaching a level where existing plants were running close to maximum capacity.

The core question is whether Apple’s attempt to source memory from China can change the market landscape. Apple’s outreach to CXMT could be read as a card to keep memory rivals in check, but some analyses say the practical effect may be limited. They cite CXMT’s already large-scale production system and its independent expansion under Chinese government support.

CXMT grew amid MIC2025, China’s semiconductor self-reliance policy. It started from a structure close to a joint venture between Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit Co (JHICC), backed by China’s central government and Fujian province, and Xi’an UniIC Semiconductors (UniIC Semiconductor), a unit of Tsinghua UniGroup. Still, it had no capital relationship at all with Tsinghua UniGroup, making the structure complex from the outset.

The business rollout moved relatively quickly. CXMT built a 300 mm production base with the former UniIC side leading design and the former JHICC side handling financing. It began bringing in equipment in late 2017 and entered mass-production tests in mid-2018. Its initial product was an 8GB LPDDR4 based on a 19 nm process. With DDR3 mass production already underway at UniIC at the time, it appears to have chosen LPDDR4 after judging it meaningless to make the same product.

Shipment expansion also continued. CXMT began mass-production shipments in 2019 and produced about 20,000 DRAM wafers a month then. In 2020, plans were mentioned to increase to 40,000 a month, but it did not actually reach that level. Output kept rising after it began producing DDR4 in addition to LPDDR4.

The expansion trend continued to 50,000 a month in 2022, more than 75,000 in 2023 and more than 100,000 a month in 2024. Annual DRAM wafer shipments in 2024 were tallied at 1,620,000. Over this period, CXMT surpassed Winbond and Nanya to reach fourth in the world at about a 5 percent share.

These figures also affect how Apple’s sourcing strategy is viewed. The target capacity of the plant CXMT built in 2017 was 125,000 wafers a month. Exceeding 100,000 a month in 2024 means capacity was close to full. Even if Apple uses CXMT as a new supplier, it may not be easy to quickly pull in much more volume and pressure memory rivals that way.

The background to China’s memory industry growth is also clear. CXMT is closer to a case of securing funding and a production base within China’s semiconductor self-sufficiency project than a case of a private company growing alone. JHICC was established with investment from China’s central government and Fujian province, and the fact that CXMT was also launched as an extension of that is a factor that is hard to ignore in supply-chain assessments.

Meanwhile, Tsinghua UniGroup once pushed its own DRAM business, but was driven to the brink of bankruptcy in July 2021 and then revived with investment from Zhiguangxin Holding. In that process, the DRAM business was concentrated in UniIC Semiconductor, and Tsinghua UniGroup’s main entity withdrew from the DRAM business. That CXMT continued expanding production even after this reshuffle shows it has established itself as a manufacturer with real supply capacity rather than a simple experimental player.

Ultimately, the point to watch is not Apple’s outreach itself but CXMT’s current spare capacity and its position in the supply chain. CXMT has already secured shipment scale that surpasses Taiwanese memory makers, and its existing production base is close to running at full capacity. Using CXMT may matter for diversifying Apple’s memory sourcing, but it has been raised that the effect as a card to keep rivals in check could be limited.