XRP rose more than 3 percent to around $1.14 on expectations the U.S. Congress will pass the Clarity bill.

On July 21, local time, blockchain outlet Decrypt reported XRP climbed as high as $1.1485, posting the third-highest gain among the top 50 cryptocurrencies.

The immediate catalyst was news that U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to an ethics clause that had blocked progress in the Senate. After the report, the prediction market Polymarket raised its odds of passage for the Clarity bill to 43 percent from 32 percent.

The Clarity bill is seen as a factor to which XRP prices are sensitive. If it passes, XRP would be officially classified as a digital commodity, and regulatory uncertainty that has weighed on institutional demand could ease. A signal that Trump shifted to agree to the ethics clause became a factor that could advance Senate talks again.

Senate Democrats have for months demanded a provision preventing the president and his family from directly benefiting from crypto businesses. The Trump family has been involved in several crypto ventures since returning to the White House in January 2024, and in 2025 alone it was reported to have brought Trump more than $1.2 billion in income. The White House and Senators Cynthia Lummis and Bernie Moreno were reported to have reached an agreement on the wording on July 20. The actual text has not been disclosed, and it is unclear whether Democrats will accept it.

Another variable is that the Senate must complete a vote before it goes into recess in August. With a tight deadline, Polymarket participants raising the odds of passage to 43 percent is seen as reflecting both progress in negotiations and a limited timetable.

As expectations of passage grew, risk appetite spread across the broader crypto market. Bitcoin rose above $66,000, and net inflows into spot exchange-traded funds over the past five trading days also topped $700 million.

XRP had lagged relatively in the market rebound. It had stayed below the $1.13 resistance line that had repeatedly capped gains since late June, but it broke above that level on the day. The intraday high was $1.1511, and market capitalisation held at about $68 billion. As prices surged, about $2.93 million in leveraged short positions were also liquidated.

Technical indicators, however, have yet to confirm a trend change for XRP. Daily candlestick action was strong, but the average directional index, or ADX, was 12.3, well below 25, which is seen as a threshold for confirming a trend. Signals appeared that the force of the downtrend is weakening, but it is too early to say buying has clearly taken control.

Directional indicators DI+ and DI- tilted somewhat toward buying dominance, but that alone is not enough to judge a trend reversal. In the medium-term view, the so-called dead cross remains in place, with the 50-day exponential moving average below the 200-day exponential moving average. For a structural reversal, the 50-day line needs to move back above the 200-day line.

The relative strength index, or RSI, was 58, a relatively positive reading. It is below 70, considered an overheated level, but it is read as a signal that buying pressure is currently stronger than selling.

A squeeze momentum indicator, which signals signs of rising volatility, also flashed a signal two candles earlier. It indicates that previously compressed volatility has begun to unwind, and price action over the next 2 to 3 trading days is likely to determine the short-term direction.

In the near term, if XRP holds a daily close above $1.1343 and ADX also rises, it could attempt to recover to $1.1563 and then to $1.1843. If it meets resistance and pulls back from the current area, $1.1189 would be the first line of defence, and if that breaks, $1.1035 is suggested as the next support. Ultimately, whether XRP’s rise continues depends on whether negotiations on the Clarity bill lead to an actual vote and, at the same time, whether the chart breaks out of its existing bearish structure.