Bitcoin’s ability to hold $61,000 steadily has emerged as the biggest turning point for the cryptocurrency market in July. Crypto trader DonAlt, who accurately predicted XRP’s 700 percent rise in 2024-2025, said Bitcoin has reached a key inflection point in the medium-term cycle and assessed that the month-end closing price will determine the market’s direction.

On July 17, blockchain media outlet U.Today reported that DonAlt said bitcoin is continuing a short-term rebound in the $62,500 to $63,500 range. He stressed that the July monthly close is far more important than temporary price moves.

He presented $61,000 as the key support level separating bullish and bearish conditions. If the monthly candle closes above that level, it can be interpreted as a sign that buyers are maintaining control. He also explained that the recent correction could be an accumulation phase for a new uptrend.

If bitcoin fails to hold $61,000, the recent rebound could amount to a so-called “pity bounce,” he warned. After a brief technical rebound, selling pressure could strengthen again and bitcoin could slide toward around $45,000, cited as the next strategic support level, he said.

DonAlt said bitcoin’s trajectory is likely to have a direct impact on the altcoin market, including XRP. He said major XRP rallies in the past often occurred when bitcoin held a stable sideways range or an uptrend, and he analysed that if bitcoin stabilises above $61,000, market liquidity could shift to altcoins, triggering a localised altcoin rally.

If bitcoin falls further to $45,000, XRP would also struggle to avoid downside pressure, he said. If bitcoin, which leads the market, turns weak, XRP’s recent attempt to trade sideways near its highs is also likely to break down, he explained.

Macroeconomic factors are also looming at month-end. The U.S. Federal Reserve will hold a Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 28-29 to decide its policy rate. Because the rate decision and comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell have a big impact on investor sentiment across risk assets, the cryptocurrency market is also watching the outcome.

DonAlt stressed that the key is whether bitcoin can defend $61,000 through the end of July. If it holds, the likelihood of a bullish trend continuing increases. If it breaks, the correction could widen in August across not only bitcoin but also the broader altcoin market including XRP, he forecast.