[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] XRP is trying to regain the $1 level, but an analysis said supply waiting from mid-term holders who bought in the $2 range could act as strong resistance. Recent buyers are nearing break-even, while investors who have held for at least 6 months are still posting large unrealised losses. That could increase selling pressure if prices rebound.

On July 14, blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate reported that on-chain analytics firm Glassnode estimated the average realised price for investors who bought XRP 6 to 12 months ago at about $2.22. That is about 52 percent higher than XRP’s price of $1.08 as of July 14.

Realised price refers to the average purchase price when those holdings last moved on the blockchain. If the price recovers to that level, that investor group would reach break-even on average.

Profit and loss by holding period also diverged clearly. The realised price for XRP that moved within the past 1 month was $1.09 to $1.11, close to the current price. By contrast, the average purchase price for the 1 to 2-year holding group was $1.89. The 6 to 12-month holding group would need the price to rise to $2.22 to recoup losses.

Glassnode also put the average realised price for the entire XRP network at $1.36. The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) indicator, which shows investors’ unrealised profit and loss, stood at -0.252. It analysed that more investors are seeing unrealised losses than gains.

Investor sentiment in the derivatives market was also not tilted in one direction. As of July 12, XRP perpetual futures funding rates diverged by exchange. Kraken was at -0.016 percent and Coinbase at -0.003 percent. Bybit and Crypto.com posted -0.002 percent, while Binance held around 0 percent. Gate was at +0.005 percent, Hyperliquid at +0.006 percent and Bitget and Huobi at +0.010 percent, showing positive funding rates.

CoinGlass explained that such differences could stem from each exchange’s user mix, margin structure and differences in trading volume, making it difficult to conclude market direction based on funding rates alone. It assessed that it was confirmed that preferences for long and short positions differed by exchange even at the same time.

Trading activity is also still dominated by the derivatives market. XRP’s futures trading volume over the past 24 hours topped $1.7 billion, while spot volume was about $290.4 million. Futures trading was about 5.9 times spot. Open interest was about $2.3 billion, down from June, but derivatives continue to have a large influence on price formation.

In the short term, $1.11 and $1.36 were presented as key price levels. If XRP regains $1.11 in a stable way, recent buyers would enter a profit zone. If it then breaks above $1.36, the average loss for all investors would start to be partially eased. After that, mid-term holdings clustered around $2.22 are likely to become the next resistance zone.

If it falls back below $1, even recently entered investors would return to a loss zone. Volatility could also widen if that is compounded by liquidation pressure from investors maintaining long positions while paying positive funding rates, it said.

External conditions are also not favourable. The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50 to 3.75 percent last month, while inflation uncertainty is rising again due to tensions in the Middle East and higher energy prices. As tensions between the United States and Iran flared again, Brent crude rose above $77, while dollar strength has continued.

Institutional flows were also somewhat unfavourable for XRP. U.S. XRP spot ETFs recorded net outflows of about $7.2 million from July 6 to 10. Over the same period, U.S. bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of about $197 million, indicating investor funds moving into bitcoin.

The market views holding the $1 level in the short term as critical for XRP. If it regains $1.11 and $1.36 in sequence, expectations of a rebound could revive. But after that, an analysis said the market would need to absorb a large overhang near $2.22 before expecting a full shift to an uptrend.