[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] An analysis says it has taken an average of 1,414 days for XRP to reach a new market-cycle high.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Sunday local time that XRP has remained in a correction phase for 12 months since its $3.60 high in July 2025. The data suggested it is too early to say the correction has ended, based on time elapsed.

The key is the time from one peak to the next. In the previous three completed cycles, XRP set new highs after 1,125 days, 1,561 days and 1,556 days, respectively. The average is 1,414 days. Only 360 days have passed since the July 2025 peak, the current reference point. If the trend holds, the next cycle peak could form between May and August 2029, with the average pointing to around June 2029.

The length of correction phases offers a similar signal. In past cycles, XRP typically spent about 15 months after a peak building a base. Applying the same pattern suggests the current correction could continue through the fourth quarter of 2026. That would imply a long-term bottom could form around that time.

The first major cycle cited in the analysis was the $0.0614 peak in December 2013. XRP rose 2,017% from the August 2013 low of $0.0029 before plunging. It fell about 95.4% to $0.0028 in July 2014. It then rebounded to $3.31 in early January 2017, taking 1,125 days from the first peak to the next peak.

The second cycle lasted longer. After the $3.31 peak in January 2017, XRP fell for about 27 months and bottomed around $0.11 in March 2020. The decline was about 96.7%. It then rose to $1.96 around mid-April 2021, completing a 1,561-day cycle.

A similar pattern repeated in the third cycle. After the $1.96 peak in April 2021, XRP fell 85.2% over about 14 months to $0.29 in June 2022. It then rebounded to reach $3.60 in July 2025, exactly 1,556 days after the April 2021 peak. Based on these data, the market is raising a scenario that a new cycle peak could come between May and August 2029.

Even using the size of price corrections, the downside range is wide. The declines in the previous three cycles were 95.4%, 96.7% and 85.2%, averaging about 92%. Applying that to the $3.60 peak leaves room, in an extreme case, for a move down to around $0.29. That matches the cycle low in June 2022. If the correction is milder like the third cycle, $0.53 is cited. A 78.6% retracement of the rise from $0.29 to $3.60 is $1.00. Taken together, the long-term bottom candidates range from $0.29 to $1.00, with a mid-range scenario of $0.53 to $0.67.

In a rebound phase, resistance levels were also set out clearly. The first key level is $1.55. That overlaps with the 61.8% retracement of the full move from $0.29 to $3.60. If XRP clears that level steadily, it could be interpreted as a confirmation signal that it has entered a broader recovery phase.

Above that, the $1.95 to $1.96 area is important. It is where the April 2021 cycle high meets the 50% retracement level. Past buyers may seek to take profit around that area. After that, the next resistance was cited as $3.31, the cycle high in January 2017. XRP must also regain the prior high of $3.60 to confirm a breakout into a new cycle.

The analysis focused on the time and drawdowns of long-term cycles rather than whether there is a short-term rebound. It said that although XRP has undergone about a year of correction since the previous high, it has not yet reached the late stage of the cycle compared with historical averages. The next points to watch are whether a bottom forms around the fourth quarter of 2026 and whether XRP can break above the $1.55 and $1.95 resistance levels.