China's largest DRAM maker ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) is launching an initial public offering in Shanghai worth about $4.3 billion. The listing, pursued as AI data centres drive a surge in memory demand, is seen as a watershed for measuring the competitiveness of China's memory industry and investor appetite.

Cryptopolitan, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Wednesday that CXMT will start taking subscription orders on July 16 on the STAR Market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Through the IPO, the company plans to raise 29.5 billion yuan ($4.33 billion). It will offer about 6.69 billion shares, about 10 percent of total shares outstanding after listing. China International Capital Corp (CICC), the lead underwriter, has also secured an overallotment option of 15 percent.

The offering timetable has also been set. Institutional bookbuilding starts on July 13, and the final offer price will be set on July 15. Subscriptions by institutional and retail investors will take place on July 16, with payment to be completed by July 20.

The fundraising would be the second-largest in the history of the STAR Market. The China Securities Regulatory Commission said the listing would be the second major IPO on the STAR Market after SMIC and the biggest A-share listing in 2026.

The market sees the listing as more than a large IPO, and a venue to test the growth potential of China's memory industry. CXMT is currently China’s biggest DRAM producer and has been a direct beneficiary of the recent boom in the memory market driven by the expansion of AI data centres. As global cloud companies increase investment in AI infrastructure, demand for server DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) has risen rapidly, with shortages and price increases continuing.

Performance has also improved sharply. CXMT posted a loss last year but recorded net profit of 3.3 billion yuan in the first quarter this year, turning profitable. It posted a net loss of 2.8 billion yuan a year earlier. Revenue over the same period jumped 719 percent from a year earlier to 5.08 billion yuan. The company said constrained DRAM supply, expanding AI-related demand and rising memory prices drove the improvement.

The outlook for first-half results is also optimistic. CXMT projected first-half revenue of 11.0 billion to 12.0 billion yuan and net profit of 5.0 billion to 5.7 billion yuan. It forecast net profit growth of 2,244 percent to 2,544 percent from a year earlier.

Market conditions are also supportive. Research firm TrendForce forecast DRAM contract prices would rise 13 to 18 percent in the third quarter this year, while NAND flash prices would increase 10 to 15 percent. It cited reduced supply of commodity memory as the share of memory produced for AI servers expands. Gartner also projected the global semiconductor market would approach $1.3 trillion in 2026 and said the memory segment would account for about half of overall industry growth.

The possibility of winning overseas customers is also drawing attention. The Financial Times recently reported Apple is testing CXMT products to review applying them to some products sold in the Chinese market. A technology gap remains with global leaders such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron, but the move is seen as a sign that the influence of Chinese memory makers is growing.

U.S. semiconductor export curbs on China remain a variable for future growth. The market values CXMT at up to 3 trillion yuan. But it also faces the task of continuing to secure competitiveness in next-generation DRAM technology, beyond relying on the current memory cycle, to maintain such a valuation.

A pledge by the largest shareholder to hold shares long term is also supporting investor sentiment. Founder Yi Ming Zhu (주이밍) said he would not sell his stake for 10 years after the listing. After that, he plans to dispose of only up to 20 percent of his remaining stake each year. The company also plans a long-term compensation programme to give employees a total of 768 million shares over 10 years starting three years after listing. It is valued at more than 20 billion yuan at recent market prices and is seen as one of the biggest employee equity compensation cases in China's A-share market.

The subscription result is expected to be the first indicator of investor confidence in China's memory industry. With Yangtze Memory Technologies also preparing for a listing, CXMT’s listing performance could become a benchmark for future IPOs by Chinese semiconductor companies.