As the console games market rapidly reshapes from physical packages to digital downloads, a long-term outlook by former Nintendo president Satoru Iwata (이와타 사토루) in 2009 is again drawing attention. He forecast it would take about 20 years for digital distribution to replace physical sales, and recent changes by Sony and Nintendo are seen as making that a reality.

According to IT outlet TechRadar on Tuesday local time, Iwata said in a 2009 investor Q&A that it would take about 20 years for digital game sales to fully replace offline physical distribution.

The remark is again in focus alongside Sony's recent policy shift. Sony announced plans to stop producing new PlayStation game discs from January 2028. That is seen as a strategy to shift its business structure toward higher-margin download sales as the share of digital sales rises sharply.

Iwata also pushed back at the time against market optimism that the digital shift would move faster. He said it would take considerable time for consumers to change buying habits they had long been used to, and predicted changes in consumer behaviour would move more slowly than technological advances.

Now, 17 years later, his forecast largely matches actual market trends. Nintendo said in its recently announced results that digital game sales surpassed physical package sales for the first time. As the share of digital revenue overtook physical sales for the first time in its 137-year history, assessments have emerged that industrywide structural change has begun in earnest inside Nintendo as well.

Figures compiled by market research firm Ampere Analysis show the same trend. When the PlayStation 4 first launched in 2013, digital game sales accounted for just 13 percent on Sony's platform. By 2025, that had expanded to about 80 percent, sharply changing the market structure in just over a decade.

Console makers' strategies are also changing. In the industry, there is speculation that the next-generation PlayStation is highly likely not to include a disc drive as standard, and Xbox is also known to be strengthening its digital-focused strategy.

Nintendo, by contrast, is seen as relatively proactive among major console makers in maintaining its physical package strategy. Still, as the share of digital sales steadily rises, forecasts say Nintendo will also find it difficult to avoid the broader market shift over the long term.

The industry has also raised the possibility that the share of digital distribution could reach virtually 100 percent around 2028. Sony's decision to end disc production is also analysed as reflecting that market trend.

Ultimately, the shift is significant in that changes in consumption habits, more than simple technological advances, are reshaping the industry's structure. The 20-year timetable Iwata presented in 2009 pointed to the idea that users' purchasing habits need more time to change than digital technology itself. Sony's plan to stop disc production and Nintendo's reversal in digital revenue are seen as examples showing his long-term outlook becoming reality.