XRP is down about 69% from its $3.66 peak in July 2025.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Tuesday that the current price is around $1.06. The recent correction is a meaningful drop, but the decline is smaller than in past major bear markets.

The key point is that it is still far from the extreme collapses of past cycles. Historical data show XRP suffered steep declines in each major market cycle, including 95 to 96% plunges in previous bear markets. The current pullback is about 69.9%, the mildest among major bear markets over more than 10 years.

Market interpretations are mixed. Some see the gradually shrinking drawdowns as reflecting a more mature market structure. Supporters believe XRP may no longer suffer the repeated 95 to 96% crashes seen in past cycles.

Others still say it is hard to conclude a bottom has been confirmed. The current correction has lasted about 11 months, and some traders believe there may be "one more down-leg remaining" before a long-term bottom forms. In the 2018 to 2020 cycle, XRP fell from $3.84 in January 2018 to $0.1151 in March 2020, enduring a bear market that lasted more than 2 years.

Applying the worst past drawdown to the current cycle increases downside risk. If XRP repeats the prior cycle’s maximum 96% drop, the price would fall to around $0.15. That would require a further decline of about 86.7% from current levels. That price range overlaps with the period when a lawsuit by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) emerged. XRP fell to $0.17 in December 2020, shortly after the lawsuit was announced.

The low zone market participants are watching is higher than that. Downside targets discussed in the current cycle generally range from $0.50 to $0.90. Some analysts see that range as a potential entry zone from a long-term investment perspective.

Still, a shallower correction than in the past does not mean downside risk has disappeared. As some still believe Bitcoin has not yet bottomed, XRP also remains exposed to the possibility of additional downward pressure. The market is watching whether this cycle ends with a milder correction different from the past, or extends into a longer downtrend like previous bear markets.