[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Investors who bet money on strong teams to win in Polymarket World Cup match markets lost millions of dollars.

On June 17 (local time), blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate reported that a 0-0 draw in the June 14 match between Spain and Cape Verde turned bets predicting a Spain win into worthless positions. By contrast, a new wallet that reflected the possibility of a draw made a $9 million profit in a single day.

The account that drew the most attention was "fishalive". After joining Polymarket in June 2026, it placed only 2 bets. It recovered $4.7 million from a contract that Spain would not win and about $8.5 million from a Cape Verde +2.5 spread position. Its total stake was about $400,000, but net profit reached $9 million.

By contrast, bets weighted toward a Spain win faced the opposite result. A trader called "betoor619" wagered close to $1 million reflecting an implied probability of about 92 percent for a Spain win, but the expected return was only $85,000. The draw wiped out the entire position.

A few days earlier, another user placed $1 million on a Spain win and expected a profit of $1,085,943, but that position also vanished in the same match. Cape Verde held on through stoppage time to take its first point in World Cup history.

The pattern repeated a day later. Inc. reported that trader "FlickRaw" wagered $2.7 million on the Netherlands to beat Japan and $1.5 million on Belgium to beat Egypt, then suffered losses totalling $4.2 million. Japan scored an equaliser in the 88th minute and came from behind twice to make it 2-2, and Belgium also drew 1-1 with Egypt.

The Belgium result also wiped out the tournament's biggest single bet. "leeeroyjenkins" wagered $8.6 million on a Belgium win and could have received $13.1 million if it won. The draw erased the position as well. Polymarket Sports posted that Egypt led 1-0 in the first half during the match, then confirmed that the final draw voided the bet.

These losses are tied to the structure of soccer bets. Contracts that require a win drop to zero value the moment a draw occurs. By contrast, fishalive's "Spain not winning" bet and the Cape Verde spread were structured to pay even in a draw.

Trading in Polymarket's World Cup winner market reached $2.46 billion. France led at about 17.6 percent, followed by Spain at about 13.9 percent, with Portugal and England at about 10.8 percent and 10.5 percent, respectively. Contracts expire around July 20, and the full 2026 World Cup lineup across 362 active markets is expected to generate more than $2.5 billion in revenue. About $64 million was traded in the Spain-Cape Verde match alone.

Against this backdrop, market prices also shifted quickly. Goldman Sachs' pre-tournament model put Spain's title probability at 26 percent and France's at 19 percent, but the market moved France back ahead of Spain after the Cape Verde match. The World Cup winner board reflects crowd psychology toward national teams, and match-level contracts are settled in about 90 minutes, immediately revealing gains and losses on screens.

Regulatory uncertainty also remains. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued draft rules on June 10 to formalise a federal oversight framework for prediction markets. The rules stated that sports contracts can help price discovery. State governments, tribal governments and the gaming industry oppose the move. In a survey by the American Gaming Association, 85 percent of Americans said they view such contracts as gambling.

Spain also temporarily blocked Polymarket and Kalshi in late May, citing a licensing gap. As a result, World Cup prediction markets are spreading beyond a simple competition over trading volume into a debate over whether to treat bets by anonymous wallets and sportsbook-scale wagers as financial derivatives.

For now, it is not confirmed whether fishalive spotted a structural mispricing first or was simply lucky. Still, in this World Cup match market, money that bet on certainty is moving quickly toward positions that also price in the possibility of a draw.

just know that somewhere is a Polymarket trader who created their account today: > put $3.79M on Cape Verde +2.5 > put another $427K on Spain not winning > making more than $9M they might be the main character of the World Cup what a debut! https://t.co/zFLlBcoPxh