Bitcoin rebounded on news that the United States and Iran will restart talks, but the market is now focusing on the outcome of negotiations over the next 60 days. In the near term, fears of an energy supply shock from the Middle East have eased. Analysts say whether bitcoin's bullish momentum continues depends on whether a deal is actually reached.

On June 17, the cryptocurrency outlet CryptoSlate reported that the market reacted immediately to news that the United States and Iran had set up a new framework for negotiations. Investors priced in the reduced likelihood of a Strait of Hormuz closure or oil supply disruptions before any final agreement itself.

Iran's foreign minister said talks would begin as soon as the two sides sign a memorandum of understanding. He said they would then discuss the nuclear programme issue and whether to ease sanctions on Iran within 60 days. The announcement was not a final agreement but a step to set the basic framework for future negotiations.

The first market to react was the oil market. Brent crude settled down about 5 percent at $78.96 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate fell to $76.05. Both benchmarks were at their lowest levels in about 3 months. The market reflected expectations that disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz were less likely and that Iranian crude exports could resume.

The Strait of Hormuz is a key logistics route through which about 20 percent of global oil and petroleum product consumption and more than 25 percent of seaborne crude trade passes, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Some assessments say the easing of tensions in the area alone can explain the drop in global oil prices.

The market is not treating the announcement as a full easing of tensions. Key issues such as the level of restrictions on the nuclear programme, verification methods and the sequencing of sanctions relief are set to be decided during the 60-day negotiations. A $300 billion support plan cited for rebuilding Iran's economy can also be implemented only if a final agreement is reached.

Sceptical views also exist in the United States. CIA Director John Ratcliffe (존 랫클리프) is still raising questions about whether Iran will make the level of nuclear concessions required for a final agreement. The market also sees that while some risk of an energy supply shock has been removed, significant uncertainty remains until a successful deal is reached.

Bitcoin is not an asset directly linked to oil, but it is indirectly affected because oil prices influence inflation, interest rates and liquidity conditions. The rebound is also interpreted through a chain of "reduced Middle East risk → oil price drop → easing inflation pressure → reduced monetary policy burden."

The Federal Reserve held a regular meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on June 16 and 17 and kept the policy rate unchanged at 3.50 to 3.75 percent.

Market attention is ultimately shifting to the detailed content of negotiations over the next 60 days. Factors seen as likely to influence oil prices and risk-asset markets include uranium enrichment caps, conditions for international inspections, a schedule for sanctions waivers, changes in cargo volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, the scale of Iranian oil exports and the reaction of the U.S. Congress.

Two scenarios are being discussed in the market. If talks conclude successfully, normalization of Iranian crude supply and sanctions relief could become reality, structurally lowering international oil prices. That could lower inflation expectations, ease real interest rates and potentially create a favourable environment for risk assets such as bitcoin.

If talks break down or there is no progress on key issues, the recent relief rally could be reversed to a large extent. If conflict persists over uranium enrichment, the verification system and the sequencing of sanctions relief, the possibility has also been raised that the oil risk premium could expand again.

CryptoSlate said the decisive factor for whether the bitcoin rebound succeeds will be not the talks announcement itself but what is actually finalized in documents over the next 60 days. The market already sees the risk of an immediate energy shock as low, but it has yet to confirm whether a phase of low inflation and expanding liquidity has begun, it said.