An analysis said it is still too early to judge whether the bitcoin market has hit a bottom.

On June 17 local time, blockchain media outlet CoinPost reported that crypto market maker Wintermute assessed the recent rebound as likely a relief rally driven by easing macro conditions, rather than a full-fledged trend reversal.

Wintermute cited reduced macro uncertainty as the backdrop for the rebound in financial and crypto markets. The May U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 4.2 percent from a year earlier, within market expectations, and the core measure slowed to 2.9 percent. It also viewed Brent crude as falling from the low $110s a barrel to the high $80s as the Iran conflict that had continued for more than 100 days moved toward an end phase, with the geopolitical risk premium shrinking rapidly.

Risk appetite revived amid that flow. Funds that left the oil market moved into small caps and altcoins. In the process, altcoins and the Russell 2000 index posted stronger rebounds than bitcoin and the Nasdaq. Wintermute interpreted this as a move created by broad market relief.

It took a more cautious stance on bitcoin itself. A view spread that the early-June plunge in the crypto market was caused by Strategy selling 32 bitcoin and capital instability, but Wintermute clearly denied it. It pointed instead to expanding inflation worries, broad risk aversion driven by strong U.S. jobs data, and the idea that bitcoin's recovery from the $60,000 range in mid-May to around $83,000 amounted to a "bear market rally."

Derivatives markets also have yet to show strong direction. With weak preference for directional positions in perpetual futures and options markets, it presented as its base scenario that the corrective phase could continue through summer.

The key is liquidity. Wintermute stressed that crypto still has strong characteristics of a macro asset and that investors should watch the channels through which excess market liquidity flows in. It named stablecoins, spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and listed companies that hold and manage crypto as core assets as key channels. But spot ETFs recorded the longest period of fund outflows, and assets under management at related listed companies fell to about $140 billion from about $220 billion. For now, it said, neither channel shows signs of a reversal toward inflows.

Wintermute said that until the situation changes, confirming a bottom is "premature." It said judging a real trend reversal would require structural changes in stablecoin issuance and redemptions, ETF fund flows, and investment activity by related listed companies.

It also assessed that appeal remains from a long-term investment perspective. It said the current bitcoin price range is sufficiently attractive in terms of long-term risk-adjusted returns, and also noted that repeated sharp drops are forming a higher-quality base of long-term holders.

But it drew a line under the idea that this means a bottom has been confirmed. It warned that in summer markets, when trading declines, bitcoin could slide into the $50,000 range depending on conditions. It added that the market's focus is expected to be whether inflows through stablecoins, spot ETFs and related listed companies revive, rather than short-term price rebounds.