Bitcoin rose above $67,000 immediately after the United States and Iran announced a ceasefire agreement, but the derivatives market did not immediately accept the rebound as a trend reversal.

Cointelegraph reported on June 16 that bitcoin surged briefly after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement with Iran late on June 15, but futures and options indicators still did not show strong optimism.

The market reaction also diverged from broader risk assets. Brent crude fell to its lowest level in 100 days on June 16, and the Nasdaq 100 index rose 3 percent. That reflected easing Middle East tensions as a factor lowering recession fears. But bitcoin market participants were more sensitive to the final deadline for the ceasefire agreement and the fact that details related to shipping operators' operations are still unclear. As noted by Yahoo Finance, the current agreement is limited to a two-month range, and claims over Iran’s maritime freight rates are also diverging.

Derivatives market data made that caution clearer. The annualised premium on two-month bitcoin futures stood at 2 percent as of June 16. It has failed to exceed 4 percent, typically seen as a neutral line, for more than three months. That suggests weak demand for leveraged bullish bets. Bitcoin’s slide of 24 percent since the start of the year also remains a burden.

Still, the short-term surge delivered a meaningful shock to bearish positions. Bitcoin rose 4 percent in a day, triggering liquidations of $210 million in short positions. That suggests the price rebound was strong, but it did not translate into broad market conviction.

Flows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds also sent a similar signal. Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $86 million on June 13, a figure seen as a proxy for institutional demand. But cumulative net outflows since June 5 total $730 million, making it hard to say the trend has reversed on this inflow alone. That is why an assessment has emerged that bulls are waiting for a stronger confirmation signal.

In the options market, demand for downside protection stood out more. Bitcoin put options traded at a 16 percent higher premium than call options. That means the market is paying more for protection against downside risk. Compared with the Nasdaq 100 rising to within 1 percent of its record high, that highlights the more conservative mood in the crypto market.

The key point to watch next is whether bitcoin can regain $70,000. If the decline in oil prices continues, further reducing recession fears, and conditions allow the U.S. Federal Reserve to pursue a less restrictive monetary policy, bitcoin could regain momentum. But so far, the signals the market is sending are closer to putting more weight on follow-up confirmation than on a short-term surge, the outlet reported.