[Digital Today reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] Shiba Inu (SHIB) has remained weak throughout the first half, but a projection says July could be a turning point for a rebound based on past price patterns.

According to blockchain media outlet U.Today on June 14 (local time), SHIB fell 10.1 percent in June 2026, reaffirming an assessment that it is a historically weak period.

SHIB has extended its losses in June after falling 11.5 percent in May. Its return for the first quarter of 2026 was minus 13.9 percent, and the second quarter so far is minus 17.3 percent. The current price is around $0.000005, 94 percent below its all-time high. Looking only at the first-half trend, investor losses have deepened.

The point the market is watching is July. Based on CryptoRank price history, SHIB's median return in July was tallied at 8.92 percent. The outlet noted, "Mid-summer has cooled spring fears, and trend reversals often appeared at quarter-turning points." SHIB rose 13.4 percent in July 2022, and in July 2025 it recorded a return of 8.92 percent, matching the median. The median return for the entire third quarter is also positive at 1.62 percent. Given the weak start to the year, the figure at least shows the possibility of market stabilisation.

Expectations for this July are being supported by factors beyond price statistics. SHIB has had regulatory risk completely removed through recognition by U.S. regulators, and as a result T. Rowe Price included SHIB in a new multi-crypto ETF, the outlet reported. The market is paying more attention to the expanded access to mainstream channels than to a simple price rebound.

Growing real-world use is also being cited as a variable. Japan's largest marketplace Mercari integrated SHIB, allowing 23 million users to use it directly for payments. That means SHIB is widening its touchpoints as a payment method rather than remaining a purely speculative asset.

Trading data also aligned with this trend. While retail investor interest focused on SpaceX's initial public offering, major market participants moved in the SHIB futures market, the outlet reported. Daily SHIB futures trading volume on June 13 to 14 jumped 60 percent to more than $140 million. The price itself remains in a weak zone, but the derivatives market has shown signs of pre-emptive position building.

Ultimately, the key question is whether past seasonality and recent catalysts will translate into an actual price rebound. U.Today assessed that expectations for July price action and fundamentals are converging. That makes whether SHIB can turn that potential into an actual market price over the next few weeks the key variable.