[Digital Today reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Ahead of the possibility of SpaceX listing on Nasdaq in June, the cryptocurrency market is assigning an expected valuation ahead of Wall Street.

As of May 26 (local time), blockchain outlet BeInCrypto reported that SpaceX-related prices have already been set through five channels, including Hyperliquid, major centralised exchanges, prediction markets and tokenised stock platforms, but valuation levels vary widely.

The key point is that the crypto market is reflecting SpaceX's expected corporate value even before traditional brokerage screens open. SpaceX submitted an S-1 prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on May 20. It is targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion and the Nasdaq ticker symbol "SPCX".

Hyperliquid reacted first. Trade.xyz listed an SPCX-USDC synthetic perpetual futures contract on May 18. The product started with a reference price of $150, rose to $216 within hours and then traded around $202.89. It does not provide actual ownership of SpaceX shares, allowing only long and short positions based on an oracle reference price.

The move quickly spread to centralised exchanges. Bitget on May 22 launched a SpaceX pre-initial public offering (IPO) perpetual futures contract with leverage of up to 5 times, and OKX on May 7 listed a USDT-settled premarket contract. BingX launched a SpaceX tracking token on April 10.

Binance's cumulative trading volume for SPCX had also surpassed $280 million as of late May. Binance expanded the related product lineup on May 26 by adding an OpenAI pre-IPO perpetual futures contract. The market sees this trend not as a one-off event but as an expansion of repeatable pre-IPO trading products.

Prediction markets are not betting on a single price but on a range of market capitalisation after listing. As of May 26, Polymarket showed the highest probability, at 39 percent, that SpaceX's market capitalisation based on the first day's closing price would reach $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion. The $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion range stood at 26 percent. This shows the market expects a first-day valuation 14 percent to 43 percent above the S-1 target.

Tokenised stocks are likely to follow soon after listing. Ondo Finance, Backed Finance, Dinari and PreStocks signalled plans to list SPCX tokenised products once trading in the underlying stock begins. Ondo Finance is operating a structure that releases on-chain stock tokens on the day an IPO lists, and an SPCX exposure product could appear on Solana, Base and Ethereum within hours after the New York stock market opens on June 12. These products can be traded 24 hours a day, allow fractional investment down to decimal units and can be linked to DeFi lending protocols.

Risks are also coming into focus. OpenAI and Anthropic pre-IPO tokens previously traded on small platforms have fallen by more than 40 percent. In particular, Anthropic PreStocks fell 45 percent over 24 hours, and its implied market capitalisation dropped to $762 billion from $1.4 trillion. The two companies have said that unapproved share transfers have no economic value.

SpaceX's bitcoin holdings are also drawing market attention. SpaceX disclosed in its S-1 that it held 18,712 BTC as of March 31. The acquisition cost was $661 million and the fair value was $1.29 billion. The company has held a substantial amount after buying 25,724 BTC in 2021. The current holdings rank within the top 10 in corporate bitcoin holdings, exceeding Tesla's 11,509 BTC but below Strategy's 843,738 BTC. An investor buying SPCX on the listing day would also be taking on exposure to bitcoin worth $1.29 billion included within the $1.75 trillion corporate valuation.

The variable market participants are most sensitive to is regulation. U.S. regulators have not yet taken a public position on whether these products are unregistered securities, swaps or fall into a separate category. The possibility has been raised that regulators in Texas and New York could examine the products, but there have been no enforcement actions so far, and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has not asserted jurisdiction over the SPCX synthetic product lineup.

As a result, if a regulatory letter or enforcement action emerges before June 12, the entire market for the SPCX synthetic product lineup could be revalued in the short term. If there is no action, tokenised stock supply could be released into the market immediately after listing with structural uncertainty intact. The cryptocurrency market has already turned a SpaceX listing into a tradable asset, but price gaps by market can be seen as reflecting both expectations and a regulatory vacuum.