With the cryptocurrency market down more than 5 percent this week, XRP has simultaneously seen whale accumulation, inflows of funds into exchange-traded fund (ETF) products and increased network activity.

On May 25, local time, blockchain outlet BeInCrypto reported that Anthropic's artificial intelligence model Claude presented three scenarios that would split XRP's 2026 price path based on these trends.

The key point is that supply-demand and usage indicators did not weaken even during a period of price softness. Data shared by analyst Ali Martinez show whale wallets accumulated an additional 71 million XRP over the past seven days. At the time, XRP was priced around $1.36. Even in the recent decline, large holders increased their exposure while weak hands sold. Claude viewed this setup as suggesting institutional confidence is being maintained despite negative market moves.

XRP Ledger activity also rebounded. Based on XRPScan data, transfers between accounts rose to 1.22 million on May 22 from under 1 million earlier in the week. An interpretation has emerged that this is closer to an increase in actual network use than speculative trading on centralised exchanges.

Inflows through spot products also continued. SoSoValue data show more than $65 million flowed into XRP spot products last week, and daily net inflows of $22.04 million occurred this week. In other words, inflows continued even during a correction. Claude saw these flows as a factor creating downside support under current prices because the funds entered through structured investment vehicles rather than leverage or short-term speculation.

Claude cited the regulatory environment, institutional funds and macro conditions as key variables for XRP's 2026 price moves. It viewed approval of the U.S. Senate's CLARITY bill as the most important regulatory catalyst. However, Standard Chartered cut its end-2026 XRP target price to $2.80 from $8. Jeffrey Kendrick (제프리 켄드릭), head of digital assets at Standard Chartered, warned that a "final capitulation" phase could appear before a recovery.

Monetary policy was also cited as a variable. One analysis said U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts could bring forward institutional fund shifts into high-risk digital assets in the second half of this year.

Factors limiting upside also remain. As many as 2.6 billion XRP could be released from escrow before year-end, potentially generating additional selling pressure, and the scale of ETF inflows linked to XRP is still small compared with bitcoin and ether products. Macro uncertainty and competition from stablecoins were also cited as risk factors.

Taking these conditions together, Claude saw the mid-level scenario as the most likely. It judged that while a new all-time high for XRP is possible, it could materialise only if regulatory progress, institutional inflows and a crypto bull market align at the same time. If these conditions are not met, it forecast XRP is likely to remain in an accumulation range for the time being rather than break out decisively.

XRP's direction in 2026 is likely to be driven first by supply-demand and the regulatory environment rather than short-term price moves. Whether three pillars are maintained, whale accumulation, increased ledger use and ETF inflows, is expected to be the key point to watch.

Whales accumulated more than 71 million $XRP over the past week. pic.twitter.com/XU79eZlO6W