A proposal has emerged to transform prediction markets from simple betting tools into operating systems for decision-making, blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported on April 7, local time.

Jesus Rodriguez (헤수스 로드리게스), co-founder and chief technology officer of Sentora, wrote in a Cointelegraph opinion piece that "today's prediction markets are nothing more than a digital casino." He said they forecast the future but fail to use those forecasts for decision-making.

The concept he highlighted is "futarchy," proposed by economist Robin Hanson (로빈 핸슨). Under the principle of "values by voting, beliefs by betting," it is a governance model that first sets target metrics and then automatically adopts the policy the prediction market judges will deliver the best performance.

Rodriguez pointed to a "conditional market" as a key technical element. Instead of simply predicting asset prices, it prices in real time the probability of outcomes "if a specific decision is implemented." For example, when a DAO decides whether to execute a marketing budget, it issues PASS and FAIL derivative tokens so market participants can bet. The outcome with the higher time-weighted average price is executed automatically through a smart contract. He described it as "math replacing politics."

Rodriguez explained that for this structure to work in practice, three pieces of on-chain infrastructure are needed: a liquidity kernel, context middleware and an execution API. An automated market maker supplies liquidity, optimistic oracles and zero-knowledge proofs verify real-world data, and smart contracts automatically enforce results.

Its use is not limited to governance. A DeFi lending protocol could price in real time the probability of a sharp collateral drop and automatically adjust the loan-to-value ratio, or a logistics company could query the probability of a port strike with a single API call and automatically reroute shipments. If disagreements arise among AI agents, the system would serve as an arbitrator instead of a human committee.

Rodriguez said, "Liquidity is in place and oracle infrastructure is ready," adding, "If prediction markets have finished the testnet stage, it is time to shift to an infrastructure layer."