[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] An analysis said XRP has indicated a consistent direction to investors through a macro pattern repeated since 2013.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Feb. 19 (local time) that XRP has left so-called “breadcrumbs” in each cycle that are seen as clues for gauging its price movement.

Market analyst Egrag Crypto divided the flow into phases: ignition, vertical rise, gradual adjustment, vertical one-month candle, long bear market, echo rally, structural reorganisation, range and a breadcrumb zone. He said each stage offers a hint for interpreting where it sits in a cycle.

In the early phase (2013 to 2016), volatility gradually decreased and a “compression zone” continued, with monthly candles densely overlapping. It was then summarised that a descending triangle structure formed over about 3 years. In 2017, XRP broke upward out of the compression zone and a strong expansion appeared, with XRP rising quickly from $0.005 in March 2017 to $0.4536 in May 2017, the analysis said.

A “gradual adjustment” phase followed the sharp rise. During this period, XRP met resistance around $0.4536 and then pulled back. From June to November 2017, it continued an orderly channel-like sideways move in a $0.12 to $0.22 range. It was described as a feature in which the adjustment proceeded over time within a structure rather than a sharp drop, and the zone was explained as a “flag” pattern.

A “vertical one-month candle” zone then appeared in December 2017. XRP formed a large monthly candle in December 2017 and surged 740 percent in a month, and the upward move continued into January 2018 to form a peak of $3.5, it said. It also raised an interpretation that such extreme vertical monthly candles act as a late-stage signal in a bullish move and can coincide with a peak formation or a shift into a range.

After the January 2018 peak, a “long bear market” unfolded. From January 2018 to June 2020, XRP underwent a “time-based adjustment” in which monthly candle bodies overlapped within a gentle downward channel and it gradually fell. It was presented as having dropped to $0.1751 in June 2020. It also said that after such a downward channel ends, the flow of another vertical expansion has repeatedly followed.

In fact, after July 2020, XRP entered a recovery phase and showed an upward move classified as an “echo rally”, rising to $1.96 in April 2021. From 2021 to 2023, a “structural reorganisation” phase continued and it gradually moved down along a descending channel, falling to $0.3761 in February 2023, it said. It noted as a feature that this process also showed a structural decline, or time-based adjustment, rather than a sharp collapse.

From February 2023 to October 2024, it moved sideways in a $0.39 to $0.80 range, forming a box range (macro range). This zone was interpreted as a digestion and accumulation stage in which the price moves sideways instead of breaking down, preparing for the next expansion.

A “breadcrumb zone” was presented as appearing after November 2024. It said XRP broke above the top of the sideways range and rose to $3.4 in January 2025, then pulled back to around $2 and moved sideways again between $2 and $3. It also mentioned that a flow repeatedly appeared in which it accumulated upward energy through a long compression stage before a sharp rise.

If the “compression-expansion-adjustment” flow is reproduced as in the past, XRP is said to have room for a mid- to long-term rebound. But in phases of high market volatility, short-term swings can widen. Attention is focused on whether trend-reversal signals, such as breaking out of the range and a recovery accompanied by trading volume, will be confirmed. Ultimately, it said whether this adjustment ends as reorganisation or whether the downtrend will lengthen will be determined by supply-demand flows and changes in the macro environment over the coming months.

#XRP - Always Leaves Breadcrumbs Always: When you strip away wicks and noise, #XRP tells a very clear story. Since inception, price has followed repeatable macro formations. Not random. Not emotional. Structured. Let’s walk through the breadcrumbs 1⃣ / 1⃣2⃣ pic.twitter.com/MQaXSLzUNf