Last year, South Korea's gaming industry landscape was reshaped into a “big three” system centered on Nexon, Krafton and Netmarble. While Nexon and Krafton maintained overwhelmingly wide performance gaps, Netmarble, which succeeded in restructuring, sharply lifted profitability and established a three-way top tier. By contrast, NCSoft and Kakao Games appeared to be regrouping after growing pains.

On Jan. 26, a compilation of estimates from financial information provider FnGuide and brokerage forecasts showed that results for the top 5 game companies in 2025 can be summed up as a runaway at the top and a pause in the middle. In particular, the combined annual operating profit of Nexon, Krafton and Netmarble was tallied at about 2.97 trillion won, nearing 3 trillion won. The remaining rivals were seen posting only small profits or turning to losses, an assessment that the industry’s “the rich get richer” phenomenon has become more pronounced.

Nexon, Krafton dominate “1 trillion won club”; Netmarble joins with “quality growth”.

Industry elder Nexon is expected to set a record with 2025 annual revenue of 4.56 trillion won and operating profit of about 1.41 trillion won. Both revenue and operating profit are seen rising at double-digit rates from a year earlier, making a second straight entry into the “4 trillion won revenue club” likely.

Fourth-quarter results are also expected at 1.21 trillion won in revenue and about 299.0 billion won in operating profit. That is attributed to the October release of the console title “Arc Raiders” and the November launch of idle RPG “MapleStory: Growing,” which are seen pushing through a year-end off-season.

Krafton is also expected to hold onto the “1 trillion won operating profit club” for a second straight year, supported by the global long run of the “Battlegrounds” IP. FnGuide estimated Krafton’s annual revenue at 3.30 trillion won, up 21.8 percent from a year earlier, and operating profit at 1.21 trillion won, up 2.5 percent. It cited solid growth in both scale and profitability.

In the fourth quarter, profitability eased somewhat due to one-off costs. Revenue in the quarter is estimated at 902.1 billion won, a 46.1 percent jump from a year earlier, while operating profit is expected to fall 26.7 percent to 158.0 billion won. That is seen reflecting about 100.0 billion won in one-off costs, including an in-house employee welfare fund and litigation-related expenses, booked mainly in the fourth quarter.

Oh Dong-hwan (오동환), an analyst at Samsung Securities, said operating profit would plunge in the fourth quarter due to seasonal revenue declines and about 80.0 billion won paid into an employee welfare fund. He said the durability of growth in the Battlegrounds IP will be determined by how convincing the update roadmap, to be unveiled in March, proves to be.

Netmarble cemented the three-way top tier after succeeding in “restructuring.” Annual revenue rose 4.5 percent from a year earlier to 2.78 trillion won, while operating profit is estimated to surge 60.2 percent to 345.4 billion won.

Growth in the fourth quarter is particularly strong. Fourth-quarter revenue is forecast at 743.1 billion won, up 14.5 percent, and operating profit is expected to jump about threefold, up 196.3 percent, to 104.4 billion won from a year earlier. Kim Hye-young (김혜영), an analyst at Daol Investment & Securities, said the results of new self-owned IP titles, including “Seven Knights Re:Birth,” released globally in September, and “Vampir,” released in August, were fully reflected in the fourth quarter and drove margin improvement. It was assessed that a virtuous cycle has taken hold as a higher share of self-owned IP leads to lower fee payments.

NCSoft’s “deferral effect,” Kakao Games’ “9 new titles”; aiming for a 2026 rebound.

NCSoft is expected to post 2025 annual revenue of 1.54 trillion won, up 2.7 percent, and operating profit of 24.7 billion won, returning to the black after a large loss a year earlier of 109.2 billion won.

The profit rebound is not as large as the market expected due to accounting factors. Results from “Aion2,” released last November and successful at launch, were not fully reflected in the fourth quarter. Fourth-quarter operating profit is expected at 11.8 billion won, turning positive, but a substantial amount was deferred to the first quarter of 2026 due to the way “Aion2” revenue is recognized. Brokerages estimate deferred revenue not recorded on the books at about 28.0 billion won, with substantive results expected to accelerate from the first quarter next year.

Kakao Games went through growing pains. Annual revenue is forecast to fall 24.9 percent from a year earlier to 470.9 billion won, while operating profit is expected to swing to a loss of 40.5 billion won. A prolonged gap in new releases left it unable to defend against a downshift and stabilization in revenue from existing live games. The fourth quarter is also expected to remain in the red, with revenue of 106.7 billion won and an operating loss of 12.5 billion won.

But the industry’s focus is on 2026 potential rather than 2025 weakness. Kakao Games is preparing a lineup of 9 major new titles this year, including “OdinQ” and “ArcheAge Chronicle.” With a high-intensity cost efficiency effort completed, some expect sharp performance improvement if new titles succeed.

Jung Ho-yoon (정호윤), an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities, said if Kakao Games releases the titles it has worked on for 2026, a strong rebound in its share price could be expected if they become hits.