An analysis said bitcoin could gain momentum for a rebound even before actual rate cuts begin if major central banks slow the pace of interest rate hikes.

On Nov. 10 (local time), Cointelegraph reported that Binance Research assessed that a more favorable macroeconomic environment for bitcoin could emerge as the spread of global monetary tightening weakens.

Eight of 10 central banks tracked by Binance Research have raised interest rates over the past six months. Sweden, which raised rates on Nov. 4, was included. The pace of tightening has slowed after peaking in July. The report analysed that if this trend continues until early 2027, the monetary tightening burden that has pressured the crypto market could also ease.

The analysis focused on how the policy direction shifts rather than when rate cuts begin. In the previous cycle, after bitcoin hit a bottom in November 2022, its six-month return had already turned positive in February 2023, before central banks actually began cutting rates. It also posted strong gains in 2024 even as monetary tightening continued. In March of that year, its six-month return exceeded 160 percent, marking the highest level of this cycle.

Binance Research assessed that in each case bitcoin responded to the direction of global monetary policy rather than the interest rate level itself. It means investors could price in a future policy shift in advance if pressure for additional hikes weakens even when rates remain high.

Still, the possibility of additional U.S. tightening remains a burden. Christopher Waller (크리스토퍼 월러), a member of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board of Governors, said on Nov. 10 he is leaning toward supporting a plan to raise the benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage point in December. He added that if core inflation remains high, a 0.5 percentage point increase could also be considered. On the day, the CME Group FedWatch measure showed the probability of a 0.25 percentage point hike in December rose to 96.3 percent from 76.3 percent.

Bitcoin has yet to break out of weakness. It stood at around $73,700 based on CoinMarketCap, down 3.4 percent over the past week and down about 30 percent over the past year. That is about 41 percent below the all-time high of $126,198.

Bitwise also focused on the possibility of a policy shift. In a report on Nov. 2, it analysed that if expectations for economic growth weaken, central banks could move toward shifting monetary policy, and that could create an environment favorable for bitcoin.

Ultimately, the key is how much further the pace of tightening slows before whether rate cuts happen. With the possibility of additional rate hikes pressuring markets ahead of the U.S. rate decision in December, attention is on whether signs of easing tightening among major countries can revive bitcoin investor sentiment.