An analysis said Bitcoin needs to confirm entry into a new upcycle within the next 30 to 45 days.

U.Today, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Oct. 22 that market analyst Bob Loukas assessed that Bitcoin has built a foundation for a rebound after a long period of sideways trading and has entered a turning point that will determine its medium-term direction.

Loukas said Bitcoin has held the key low in its 60-day cycle. He said it built a base without a fear-driven plunge, then broke higher out of a long accumulation phase, and is holding above the exponential moving average (EMA). He said Bitcoin has a "clean setup" now, with a relatively clear risk zone while the price direction points higher.

There are three reasons this deadline is drawing attention. First, the period from late October to early December has historically been the window when accumulated upside momentum shows most clearly. He said Bitcoin needs to confirm entry into a new upcycle during this period and form a move toward its all-time high (ATH).

The downside threshold is also clear. Loukas said the bullish scenario would be invalidated if Bitcoin falls below $79,600 on a closing basis within the next 45 days. In that case, the market is likely to put more weight on defense than aggressive investment.

Seasonal trends were also cited as a burden. Loukas viewed December to February as a period with a higher likelihood of declines. He said if Bitcoin fails to form a short-term peak within the set timeframe, a winter correction could begin from a lower price level.

This technical deadline also coincides with Bitcoin volatility remaining at its lowest level in 2025. The analysis said inflows of institutional funds through U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have eased price swings and the market has matured compared with before, but sensitivity to U.S. liquidity conditions has increased instead.

There are two near-term variables. They are the U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Oct. 28 and a $12 billion options expiry scheduled for Oct. 30. The FOMC meeting, held in an environment of 3.7 percent inflation, could directly affect liquidity expectations, and the large options expiry could spur short-term volatility.

Ultimately, market attention is focused on whether Bitcoin can turn the low it has defended into a full-fledged uptrend. If it successfully defends $79,600 over the next month and a half while sustaining an upward move, expectations for an upcycle could grow. If it loses strength in that zone, the current countdown will reset and the market will need to assess the possibility of a long correction phase lasting until late winter.

"Bitcoin appears to be confirming the new cycle here. These events provide a really clear and clean setup. The upside target is around 30 to 45 days, room for a good advance. It is however not guarantee of a major upside move, but provides an excellent anchoring point because a loss of the recent lows ($79,600) is a level where you would want to get very defensive."