JPMorgan has pointed to bitcoin as the asset most likely to deliver the highest return among major asset classes over the next 10 to 15 years.

On Oct. 20, blockchain media outlet U.Today reported that JPMorgan, in its "2027 Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions" report, assessed bitcoin's future annualised compound return at 10.0 percent. That is above the projections for other major asset classes in the report.

U.S. real estate investment trusts were put at 8.2 percent, small-cap stocks at 7.7 percent, large-cap stocks at 7.5 percent, emerging market equities at 7.1 percent and gold at 5.5 percent. It is the first time JPMorgan has presented a return range for bitcoin in its Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions report.

The outlook also coincides with a shift in how JPMorgan views bitcoin. Matt Hougan (맷 호건), chief investment officer at Bitwise, said JPMorgan has moved from a sceptical stance on bitcoin to a stage where it is releasing long-term performance projections.

JPMorgan cited expanding capital expenditure worldwide as the backdrop for the outlook. It said a $15 trillion global capital expenditure boom, centred on technology investment including artificial intelligence, could drive economic growth and productivity gains over the next decade and support solid asset returns. It projected stronger growth in advanced economies and improvements in bond returns and diversification opportunities.

It also compared the investment appeal of bitcoin and gold. JPMorgan said investors still view gold more optimistically than bitcoin. Since early 2026, funds equivalent to earlier outflows have fully returned to spot gold exchange-traded funds, while spot bitcoin ETFs have recovered only about half of their outflows, it said.

JPMorgan said the dynamic could instead increase bitcoin's room to rise further. Because bitcoin is less hedged than gold, its upside potential could be greater, it said. While gold is leading the recovery in inflows, bitcoin still has additional upside potential in terms of investor positioning, it said.

JPMorgan previously presented $266,000 in February as bitcoin's theoretical long-term value. It calculated the figure based on a comparison with gold while reflecting bitcoin's volatility. Combined with the latest long-term expected return outlook, it amounts to JPMorgan signalling to the market that it sees bitcoin not as a short-term volatile asset but as one of the targets for long-term asset allocation.

The point to watch is whether actual fund flows will follow the outlook. Attention is also focused on the pace of recovery in spot bitcoin ETF flows, relative flows against gold ETFs and how expanding technology investment will affect the broader long-term asset market.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you'll be the best-performing asset of the next decade.