Bitcoin has struggled to rise, but Wall Street has instead reduced its bearish view. [Photo: Shutterstock]

Bitcoin briefly fell to the $80,000 level this month, but Wall Street's bearish bets have instead declined.

CryptoSlate, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Oct. 19 that leveraged funds' net short positions in bitcoin futures tallied by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission stood at 30,611 BTC as of Oct. 13. That was down 5,292 BTC from 35,903 BTC a week earlier, a drop of about 15 percent.

Positions betting on both price rises and falls declined. Short positions fell more than long positions, shrinking the net short total. Even so, shorts still exceeded longs by more than two to one, keeping the bearish side in control.

By contrast, total long exposure increased when spread trades used for arbitrage were included. Long positions based on expectations of price gains fell, but longs included in arbitrage rose by more than that.

Spread trading involves buying and selling futures with different maturities to seek profit from price differences. It can reduce risk tied to price direction, and leveraged funds' spread positions rose about 48 percent over the period. That is why it is difficult to view the expansion in overall long positions as an outright strong buy signal.

This shift is seen less as growing confidence in a rise than as a move to reduce bets and adjust trading strategies. Whether spot inflows or a recovery in buying demand occurs also needs to be checked separately. The data are as of Oct. 13 and do not reflect bitcoin's further drop below $80,000 afterward.

The key ahead is whether long positions and spot buying increase together while bearish bets continue to shrink. Analysts say it is better to look at subsequent futures data and spot-market supply and demand together, rather than conclude a trend reversal based only on the position changes confirmed so far.

Keyword

#Bitcoin #CryptoSlate #CFTC #Wall Street #spread trading
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