With worries about interest rate hikes easing somewhat, bitcoin may continue trading in a range for the time being without a clear direction.

On Oct. 17, blockchain media outlet CoinPost reported that cryptocurrency asset manager CoinShares said U.S. inflation and consumption indicators were stronger than expected, but the market entered a phase of checking economic data for now after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh did not signal additional hikes.

The U.S. consumer price index for September rose 3.7 percent from a year earlier, above the 3.6 percent forecast. The core index excluding food and energy rose 0.3 percent from the previous month and 2.6 percent from a year earlier. Retail sales rose 0.8 percent from the previous month, above the roughly 0.3 percent forecast, and the August figure was revised up to a 1.3 percent increase.

As a result, the possibility of an additional rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for Oct. 27-28 surged at one point. LSEG data put the odds at 20 percent to 47 percent, and CME Group's FedWatch showed them rising from 21 percent to about 54 percent. But after Warsh did not signal further hikes at the IMF-World Bank annual meetings on Oct. 16, the current estimate fell again to about 15 percent.

Bitcoin had already come under pressure. On Oct. 15, bitcoin slipped to the low $80,000 range, marking its lowest level in a month. Global crypto investment products saw outflows of $434 million last week.

CoinShares did not define the current situation as a short-term downtrend. It said the need for a tightening policy could grow in an environment combining entrenched inflation and solid demand, but described bitcoin's short-term moves as closer to a "deadlock" rather than fundamental weakness. It also said only the timing of a rate hike had changed and the market had not completely ruled out further tightening within the year.

Consumer indicators were also mixed. Part of the increase in September retail sales reflected higher energy prices. Gas station sales rose 6.4 percent from the previous month, but sales excluding gasoline increased just 0.2 percent, slowing from 1.0 percent in August. CoinShares said if rising energy prices continue to pressure household purchasing power, the current consumption strength could shift toward weaker demand as year-end approaches.

Investors are also watching the next indicators. On prediction market platform Polymarket as of Oct. 15, the implied probability of holding rates at the October meeting was about 87 percent, while the probability of a 0.25 percentage point hike was about 14 percent. But futures markets tilted toward a more hawkish view after the CPI release, and expectations for an additional hike within the year have risen.

As a result, bitcoin's short-term driver is increasingly likely to be upcoming U.S. indicators rather than worries over additional tightening themselves. CoinShares said rangebound trading could persist until there is clear evidence of slowing inflation or enough economic weakness to erase concerns about further tightening. The market is watching the September personal consumption expenditures price index due on Oct. 29, the employment report on Nov. 6 and the CPI on Nov. 10 as the next turning points, following the Fed meeting.