Bitcoin and Ethereum could continue their recovery through year-end, a forecast said.

Coinbase and on-chain analytics firm Glassnode said in a joint quarterly report that they were broadly positive on the market in October to December 2026, while warning that the $90,000 to $94,000 zone for bitcoin could be a strong resistance level, Coinpost reported on Oct. 17 (local time).

The report pointed to demand for dollar alternatives as a factor behind bitcoin’s recovery despite rising interest rates and Treasury yields. The U.S. Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points in September 2026 to 3.75 to 4.00 percent. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 85 basis points in July to September to 5.29 percent. Bitcoin nonetheless maintained its recovery trend.

From July to September, bitcoin showed a higher correlation with precious metals than with stocks. The daily return correlation with gold and silver was 0.61, and it recorded a negative correlation of -0.43 with the dollar index. Correlations with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were 0.30 and 0.29, respectively. The report said the latest rise in bitcoin was closer to demand as a dollar alternative than to a broader increase in risk-asset appetite.

Key variables through year-end included an end to additional Fed rate hikes, stability in core personal consumption expenditures (PEC) inflation, a break above bitcoin’s $90,000 to $94,000 resistance zone, and sustained inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). On the other hand, near-term pressure could increase if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rises to 5.5 percent, oil prices extend inflation, bitcoin falls below its 200-day moving average of about $71,000, or ETF outflows resume.

On-chain indicators also showed a recovery. Bitcoin’s unrealised profit-to-loss ratio rose to 0.38 from 0.11, moving from the “hope” zone to the “optimism” zone. The supply of bitcoin that has not moved for more than 1 year also rose by about 340,000 BTC. This supports an analysis that long-term holders chose to hold rather than sell despite price gains. Long-term holders briefly showed selling moves in August but shifted back to accumulation in September.

Ethereum also showed signs of recovery. Its price rose 71 percent in July to September, delivering returns about 20 percent higher than bitcoin. Its unrealised profit-to-loss ratio rose to 0.22 from -0.31, moving from the “capitulation” zone to the “optimism” zone, and the share of ether in profit rose to 63 percent from 28 percent. Over the same period, the supply that has not moved for more than 1 year rose 7 percent to 66.7 million ETH, while the amount moved within the past 3 months fell 18 percent. This is seen as a stronger tendency to keep holding despite price gains.

ETF fund flows also coincided with a shift in market sentiment. Spot bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows of $7 billion in July to September, while spot ether ETFs had net inflows of $3.1 billion. Both products turned from outflows in the first half of 2026 to inflows.

As a result, the year-end market is increasingly likely to be shaped by whether prices break above resistance and whether ETF inflows persist. If bitcoin moves above the $90,000 to $94,000 zone and the long-term holding trend continues, the recovery could strengthen, but the possibility of a short-term pullback remains if bond yields and inflation pressures rise again.