About $910 million has left bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over the past two weeks.
Blockchain media outlet Decrypt reported on Oct. 18 that net outflows totaled $228.6 million last week, following $681.1 million of outflows the previous week, extending the streak of withdrawals to a second week.
On a weekly basis, outflows exceeded inflows on 3 of the 5 trading days. The largest daily outflow last week was $261.4 million on Wednesday. Inflows of $175.7 million on Tuesday were mostly reversed the next day, a modest $5.1 million flowed in on Thursday, and $82.4 million left again on Friday.
Cumulative flows for October also worsened. The month began with about $293 million of inflows, but it now shows about $615 million in net outflows. The withdrawal trend began in earnest on Oct. 7, when $484.9 million left in a single day, marking the worst day since June. Ethereum and Solana ETFs also showed weakness during the month.
The market reflected caution over inflation and interest-rate variables. The U.S. September consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.7 percent from a year earlier, above the market forecast of 3.6 percent. The producer price index (PPI) that followed also came in higher than expected, bringing renewed focus to the possibility of additional interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Bitcoin prices also wobbled. The price fell below $80,000 at one point last week, and about $950 million in leveraged positions was liquidated over 24 hours. About 90 percent of the liquidations came from long positions that had bet on prices rising. Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev said the decline pushed bitcoin below an estimated average entry price for ETF investors of $82,300.
The burden of higher rates is also directly affecting ETF flows. If inflation prints high, the Fed is more likely to keep rates higher for longer or raise them further. In that case, rising Treasury yields put an effectively risk-free return of around 5 percent a year in competition with risk assets such as bitcoin. Higher rates also raise borrowing costs and the dollar, adding pressure on crypto investing that uses leverage.
Still, cumulative flows since the launch earlier this year remain positive. Cumulative net inflows into bitcoin spot ETFs are tallied at $57.3 billion. Total net assets are $104.29 billion by Sosovalue. Bitcoin ended last Friday at about $81,590, lower than about $82,337 a week earlier.
A key question is whether ETF outflows will ease amid inflation and rate burdens. With bitcoin below an estimated average entry price for ETF investors, attention is on whether withdrawals continue or bargain buying flows in and reverses the trend.