Bitcoin could find support near $30,000 even if institutional money exits on a large scale, a forecast showed.

CryptoSlate, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Oct. 18 that CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju (주기영) argued such a support level could form even if about $58 billion of net inflows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were withdrawn and about 1.3 million BTC held by listed companies were sold in full.

He rebutted a forecast by Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone on X, formerly Twitter, that bitcoin could fall to $10,000. He cited investors' estimated purchase cost based on on-chain data.

The key indicator is MVRV, the ratio of bitcoin's market value to its realised value. It compares the current market capitalisation with the total value of each bitcoin priced at the time it last moved on-chain. It is used to gauge the market price level against investors' average purchase cost.

Bitcoin's realised price stood at about $53,855 on the day. At that price, MVRV would be about 0.56 if bitcoin fell to $30,000 and about 0.19 at $10,000. Ju questioned the $10,000 forecast, citing that MVRV was about 0.6 at the bottom in past severe bear markets.

He also cited long-term holders who bought bitcoin in 2019 and endured two drops of about 75%. For bitcoin to fall to $10,000, even they would have to give up their holdings, he said. McGlone, by contrast, saw macroeconomic conditions such as a sharp fall in U.S. stocks and rising Treasury yields as factors that could pressure bitcoin to fall further.

Even so, $30,000 is about 63% below the then trading price of about $82,000. The forecast is based on an analysis that assumes an extreme institutional outflow, and it does not guarantee support at that level. The realised price itself could change in the course of selling, and the actual decline will vary depending on demand that can absorb the supply being sold.

The remarks stand out for identifying both spot ETF flows and listed firms' holdings as pillars supporting bitcoin prices. The core of the forecast is that it presents a support level even while assuming a sharp pullback in institutional demand.

Hey Mike ETFs brought in $58B and treasury companies hold 1.3M BTC. If all of it leaves, on-chain cost basis still puts the floor near $30k. $10k means MVRV 0.2. Bitcoin's worst bottom was 0.6. You would need 2019 buyers to panic, and they have already survived two 75% crashes.