An analysis says bitcoin is trying to break above its 20-month simple moving average before testing a new record high. On Oct. 16, Cointelegraph reported that CryptoQuant assessed bitcoin as showing a flow similar to past market cycles and clashing again with a key long-term trend line.

The benchmark CryptoQuant highlighted is bitcoin's 20-month simple moving average. As of Oct. 16, it stands at $87,165. The line is the midpoint of Bollinger Bands and a reference used by CryptoQuant's market cycle signal tool to gauge bitcoin's current phase.

The upper band is currently $121,640 and the lower band is $52,694. CryptoQuant views the area between the lower band and the 20-month line as an "accumulation base" and the 20-month line itself as an "inflection frontier". Bitcoin broke below this line in December 2025, triggering investor capitulation, and is now testing the resistance from below. In the past, there have been cases where a breakout from this zone was followed by a new cycle high.

CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnchain said the market "reset" was completed just over a year after bitcoin hit an all-time high of $124,709 on Oct. 6, 2025. The contributor also said retail investors are mistaking the current $82,442 support zone for a peak, but on-chain indicators show the market has only just entered the early stage of an uptrend.

Bollinger Bands do not provide direct buy and sell signals. CryptoQuant interpreted its market cycle signal as showing that when bitcoin's price touches the upper band, so-called smart money has tended to take profits. The current upper band is slightly below the recent all-time high of $126,200 recorded in October 2025, but it said the next upswing could exceed that level.

The 20-month line is seen as a strong resistance level in the short term. That is because it overlaps with the 2026 opening price of $87,490. Large sell orders still sitting around exchange order books were also cited as an upside headwind.

The overall view remains optimistic. CryptoQuant put weight on the possibility that bitcoin's new bull market could continue despite macroeconomic pressures. This week, XWIN Research Japan said three on-chain indicators suggest bullish momentum could return by the end of October, presenting "cautious optimism". Ki Young Ju (기영 주), the chief executive, has also said the bear market ended based on an indicator tracking the bull and bear cycle as of late August. The indicator rose to 0.186 recently from 0.042 in August.