Thailand has opened the way for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to list, but early inflows of funds are not expected to be large, a forecast said.

Cointelegraph, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Oct. 15 that digital asset manager CoinShares expected inflows into the first products to be in the tens of millions of dollars, rather than billions of dollars, even after Thailand's new system takes effect.

In Thailand, rules allowing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs to list on the Stock Exchange of Thailand take effect on Oct. 17. That will allow Thai retail investors to invest in crypto ETFs listed locally. By contrast, overseas crypto ETF investment via domestic brokers is limited to institutional investors and ultra-high-net-worth individuals.

Some steps still remain before actual trading can begin. The first crypto funds must set up custody and distribution systems along with regulatory approval. The system does not mean trading starts immediately once the rules take effect.

James Butterfill (제임스 버터필), head of research at CoinShares, said initial demand could be limited. Even if a new investment channel emerges in Thailand, existing investment tools already split demand, he said.

Some Thai investors already have bitcoin exposure through offshore funds or direct crypto trading. Butterfill said this structure means local ETFs must offer a clear reason to draw new money or prompt existing investors to switch. That means local ETFs ultimately need to prove competitiveness by attracting new investors or creating switching demand.

The Hong Kong case was also mentioned. Even Hong Kong, an international financial hub, did not see crypto exchange-traded product (ETP) inflows as large as expected. CoinShares data showed global crypto investment products had assets under management (AUM) of $172.9 billion as of the end of September, and Hong Kong accounted for just $733 million, or 0.42 percent.

Potential issuer candidates in Thailand were also discussed. MFC Asset Management launched MBTCETF-UI, a bitcoin spot ETF tracker fund, in 2024. The fund invests in the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the world's largest bitcoin spot ETF run by BlackRock.

ONE Asset Management was also mentioned as a candidate. ONE Asset Management was the first Thai asset manager to receive approval in 2024 for a fund linked to a bitcoin spot ETF. Butterfill said he had not been able to confirm local-listed crypto ETF launch plans or the timing of first-product trading for either of the two companies.

As a result, the market's first focus is expected to be less on the rules taking effect and more on when listing applications emerge and when the first products with custody and distribution systems begin trading.