Tesla's forecast for third-quarter 2026 vehicle deliveries is sharply divided on Wall Street. Estimates by major financial institutions range from 421,758 to 482,000 units, creating a gap of more than 60,000.

Electrek, an electric-vehicle trade outlet, reported on Sept. 28 that Tesla is due to announce third-quarter production and delivery results on Oct. 2. Tesla has not yet disclosed an analyst consensus it compiled internally. In the second quarter, it released the consensus 6 days before the results announcement.

By institution, forecasts are: JPMorgan at 482,000, Barclays at 475,000, UBS at 470,000, StoneX at 446,500, Goldman Sachs at 435,000 and Cantor Fitzgerald at 421,758. The median of these 6 institutions is about 458,000.

Consensus figures also differ by source. Visible Alpha's tally ranges from 449,000 to 454,000 depending on when it is checked, while Bloomberg's consensus is 466,000. Contract prices on prediction market Kalshi currently reflect deliveries in the low-to-mid 470,000 range.

The recent trend in estimates has been downward. On Sept. 16, Goldman Sachs cut its forecast by 55,000 from its previous estimate, and JPMorgan also lowered its forecast by 34,000. Cantor Fitzgerald presented the lowest forecast among the major institutions.

Weak August sales in the United States and China, key markets for Tesla, are cited as a reason for lower forecasts. Tesla's U.S. sales in August were about 40,816 units, down 26 percent from a year earlier, while China retail sales were 50,047 units, down 12.4 percent.

Electrek said Tesla's China retail sales are weak but exports are rising, and that North American EV sales are declining while sales in Europe are strong.

Third-quarter deliveries are also likely to fall from a year earlier. Tesla delivered 497,099 vehicles in the third quarter of 2025, the highest quarterly total on record. At the time, demand surged from buyers seeking to claim a $7,500 U.S. federal EV tax credit that was set to end on Sept. 30, 2025.

All forecasts currently offered by the 6 institutions are below the year-earlier level. JPMorgan's estimate of 482,000 would be down about 3 percent from a year earlier, while the 6-institution median of 458,000 would be down about 8 percent. Cantor Fitzgerald's estimate of 421,758 implies a drop of about 15 percent.

Most forecasts also point to a decline from the previous quarter. Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter this year, and JPMorgan was the only one to expect third-quarter deliveries to rise from the prior quarter.

Wall Street's recent accuracy on Tesla delivery forecasts has not been high. Tesla's internally compiled second-quarter consensus was 406,024, but actual deliveries came in 74,000 higher at 480,126. Electrek reported that Kalshi traders' forecasts at the time were close to actual deliveries.

How much sales recovered in late September is also a variable. Tesla offered discounts in China to revive demand, and some analysis suggests the discount effect could influence the final third-quarter delivery figure because sales are typically highest in the last month of a quarter. Volumes exported from China to Asia-Pacific and European Union markets were also cited as a factor that could lift deliveries.