Tesla has raised production of its humanoid robot Optimus by nearly 10-fold, but the robot hand assembly process is emerging as a key bottleneck as it expands mass production. Production speed has climbed from dozens a week to hundreds, but technical challenges still remain before mass production and commercialisation of a general-purpose robot, analysts say.

Cryptopolitan reported on Sept. 26 that Tesla was producing dozens of Optimus units a week as recently as the second quarter this year, but has recently increased output to hundreds a week. Tesla is aiming to produce 1,000 a week by the end of the year, and has set an internal long-term goal of producing 20,000 a week.

One of the biggest obstacles to expanding output is the robot hand. For Optimus to pick up, move and manipulate a range of objects, multiple mechanical parts must move simultaneously with high precision. It also needs to secure durability of parts as it repeatedly performs tasks in factory settings, making assembly more difficult.

Suppliers' production limits and errors in automated equipment are also variables. Simply increasing output is not enough to hit targets, meaning the entire production process must improve together, from parts supply to stabilising assembly systems.

The model currently produced at Tesla's Fremont plant is Optimus V3. V3 applies a lighter frame and an improved camera system than the previous generation, and its appearance has also changed to a more human-like form. Hardware improvements alone have not reached a fully general-purpose humanoid robot.

The AI system in Optimus V3 was trained on more than 500,000 hours of data collected in real work environments. It is currently focused on carrying out specific tasks in a controlled area in Palo Alto and inside Tesla factories. It is still seen as far from a general-purpose robot that can be deployed in a variety of buildings and environments and 판단 situations and respond on its own.

The commercialisation model under review also differs from typical robot sales. Tesla is reportedly considering supplying early commercial Optimus units on a lease basis rather than selling them. Early adopters are also being discussed as warehouse environments similar to facilities operated by Tesla.

A leasing model would also be favourable for Tesla in continuously improving the product. If problems occur on site, it can retrieve the robot, revise the design or replace parts, and then redeploy it. Data secured during operations can also be used to further train AI models.

2027 is being discussed as a commercialisation timeline. Jerry Wang (제리 왕), chairman of Faraday Future Intelligent Electric, assessed the possibility of a commercial launch of Optimus as being "very realistic" in intent. He diagnosed software and training as bigger barriers than hardware, and forecast that it would reach commercialisation even if it takes time.

The market is offering similar views. JP Morgan said in a report last month that Tesla could start selling the third generation of commercial Optimus in the second half of 2027. Polymarket, meanwhile, estimated the probability that Tesla will commercially launch Optimus by the end of 2026 at 10 percent. Tesla has so far not sold Optimus to external buyers.

Tesla's increase in production from dozens a week to hundreds can be seen as a sign that its mass-production system is moving beyond an initial stage. But to achieve targets of 1,000 a week within the year and 20,000 a week in the long term, it needs to raise at the same time the precision and durability of robot hands, supply chain responsiveness, assembly process stability and the level of AI training.

Ultimately, the next stage for Optimus is not expected to stop at simply expanding output. How stably it can repeatedly perform set tasks in a controlled factory environment, and how far it can extend that into a wider range of work environments, remain key challenges for Tesla's humanoid business.