Morgan Stanley and Oliver Wyman forecast the tokenised real-world assets market will reach about $2.3 trillion in 2030. They expected much of the market expansion to come from collateral movement and cash management at financial institutions, rather than a shift of investment products to blockchain.

On Sept. 24 (local time), blockchain media outlet The Defiant reported the forecast, citing the firms' jointly published 2026 asset and wealth management report, "Breaking From the Pack: The Race for Above-Market Growth." Oliver Wyman's official report also projected tokenised real-world assets would expand to $2.3 trillion in 2030 from about $40 billion now.

In the base case, the largest segment was collateral mobility, with about $1.7 trillion allocated. Reserve and treasury management was forecast at $400 billion. Together, the two areas account for most of the overall projection.

The two firms analysed that cash, U.S. Treasuries and money market products are spread across multiple custodians and settlement systems, meaning it can take hours to days to move or replace collateral. Using tokenised assets could allow eligible assets to be transferred and posted as collateral across multiple venues in near real time. This could reduce the need to pre-fund trades or maintain excessive liquidity buffers.

The remaining segments were relatively small. Global securities distribution was projected at about $200 billion, operational efficiency at $80 billion, and accessibility and transferability in private markets at $10 billion. All figures are estimates based on the 2030 base case scenario.

Of the $2.3 trillion total, about $1.3 trillion was classified as assets under management accessible to asset managers. The two firms expected early tokenisation demand to focus on cash management, reserves, and money market funds and U.S. Treasuries used as collateral.

Examples are also emerging of using tokenised investment products as collateral. The Defiant reported that Securitize's tokenised credit fund HINC token is being used as collateral on Loopscale. Eligible investors can borrow the USDG stablecoin by pledging their holdings without redeeming their stake.

The two firms said cost savings were unlikely to be the key driver of tokenisation adoption in the short term. After comparing fees on tokenised funds with similar traditional financial products, they found a slight fee premium for tokenised products. They said this may be because of additional costs to build and manage blockchain-based products.

The report therefore analysed that tokenisation will need benefits such as faster settlement, improved collateral mobility and greater accessibility.

In private markets, it said tokenisation alone would not solve all problems. Tokenisation can improve ownership records and asset transfers, but it cannot by itself create buyer demand, reliable valuations or secondary market liquidity.

The $2.3 trillion figure for 2030 is a base case projection rather than a confirmed market size. The two firms estimated the market could reach $1.1 trillion under a limited adoption scenario and expand to as much as $5.5 trillion under a broad adoption scenario.

The base case assumes a supportive regulatory environment, that infrastructure linking blockchain networks is built as planned, and that related industry investment continues to expand.

The tokenisation market is currently fragmented across multiple networks and secondary market liquidity is limited. The report said that for collateral-related markets to grow, assets and cash must be able to move reliably across multiple venues, supported by institutional-grade settlement and custody infrastructure.