Bitcoin hit $85,000, rewriting a high for the first time since January. Major indicators including blockchain outlet Cointelegraph show the market is watching whether bitcoin can break higher as easing oil prices and inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs coincide.

There are also signs of short-term overheating. The daily relative strength index neared 70, approaching overbought territory. Rekt Capital warned of bearish divergence, with price highs rising while indicator peaks fall. Bitcoin also regained its 50-week exponential moving average of $77,769.

Short-position liquidations also increased during the sharp rise. The total amount liquidated across the crypto market over the past 24 hours exceeded $600 million, according to Coinglass.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETF flows also supported the bullish case. Net inflows on Sept. 19 were $435 million, the biggest since Sept. 3. More money went into Fidelity's FBTC than BlackRock's IBIT, with FBTC posting net inflows of $310 million.

Break-even levels by price are also in focus. The average purchase price of bitcoin held in corporate treasuries is about $80,500. The average purchase price for U.S. spot bitcoin ETF investors was tallied at $85,638.

Oil prices and interest rates are cited as macro variables. West Texas Intermediate crude, which topped $100 a barrel last week, fell below $94 on Sept. 21. Majed Al Ansari (마제드 알 안사리), a spokesperson for Qatar's foreign ministry, said attempts to resume talks between the United States and Iran have continued over the past few weeks.

This rise is drawing attention because it reflects not only a price surge but also a shift in the structure of ETF inflows and easing macro variables working together. In particular, the move in net inflows from BlackRock-led buying to Fidelity points to a dispersion of demand for bitcoin investment.

The market is pricing a 53 percent chance that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise its policy rate by an additional 0.25 percentage point at its October meeting. It also sees a nearly 40 percent chance of one more 0.25 percentage point increase before year-end. Still, as oil prices ease, U.S. long-term government bond yields have fallen from recent highs.