Bitcoin held above $80,000 over the weekend, but indicators suggest it is hard to say strong buying conviction from institutional investors has returned.

On Sept. 20, blockchain outlet CryptoSlate reported that bitcoin futures positions and spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows pointed in different directions.

The first shift came from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) tally of bitcoin futures positions as of Sept. 15. Across four regulated bitcoin futures products, leveraged funds’ net short position shrank by the equivalent of 7,275 bitcoin from the previous week. Over the same period, asset managers’ net long position fell by the equivalent of 4,733 bitcoin.

In detail, leveraged funds’ net short position narrowed to about 32,602 bitcoin as of Sept. 15 from about 39,877 bitcoin as of Sept. 8. Over that period, long positions increased and short positions declined. By contrast, asset managers’ net long position fell to about 14,133 bitcoin from about 18,866 bitcoin over the same period.

It is still hard to conclude demand has recovered based on futures positions alone. The CFTC classifies traders by their primary business activity, not by the purpose of individual positions. That means the distinction between leveraged funds and asset managers does not imply all trades follow the same investment strategy. Positions can reflect speculation, hedging, risk management and intermarket arbitrage at the same time.

Spot ETF flows also looked closer to a limited rebound. In tallies from Farside Investors, spot bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows of $159.5 million on Sept. 17 and $433.0 million on Sept. 18, for a combined $592.5 million over two days. But total net inflows for the full week from Sept. 14 to 18 came to just $6.1 million. The reason such comments are emerging is that ETF demand showed signs of reviving, but it is still too early to view it as a sustained allocation trend.

It is also hard to interpret futures data and ETF data as a single indicator showing the same institutional sentiment. ETF creations and redemptions indicate fund inflows and outflows, while the CFTC report shows long and short exposure in the futures market. The two can be compared as separate signals of institutional activity, but it is not possible to confirm what positions the same investor took in both markets.

Differences in timing also need to be considered. The CFTC figures are as of Sept. 15 and do not reflect the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement and market moves that followed. That makes it difficult to conclude the shift in futures positions directly led to spot buying or to bitcoin breaking above $80,000.

A near-term key is whether bitcoin breaks through the $82,000 to $82,200 resistance zone. Even if it clears that line, inflows into ETFs and an expansion of asset managers’ net long positions would need to support an interpretation that institutional demand is recovering.

The next data to watch are the CFTC’s regular report with positions as of Sept. 22 and subsequent ETF flows. If leveraged funds’ net short position shrinks further and asset managers’ net long position rises, the case supporting a shift to a bullish trend strengthens further. If net shorts keep shrinking without a recovery in asset managers’ net long position, it could be read as a moderation in bearish pressure. If net shorts rise again, this week’s change could prove to be only a temporary move.

In the end, what has been confirmed so far is limited. Bitcoin is holding above $80,000 and leveraged funds’ net short position has shrunk, but an assessment is that institutional conviction has not been confirmed because asset managers’ long positions fell and weekly ETF inflows stayed effectively flat.