Bitcoin rebounded to around $81,280 after rising about 4 percent over 24 hours, but markets are warning that it is hard to conclude the move marks a resumption of a bull market.

According to blockchain outlet U.Today on Sept. 19, the focus of recent debate has been the “golden cross,” when the 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day moving average.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen (벤자민 코웬) said it was too early to be confident of a trend reversal based on this pattern alone. He said bitcoin has entered an uncertain phase and a liquidity trap could be hiding behind the appearance of technical indicators.

Some in the market are linking the rebound to interest rate expectations, but Cowen said the more important yardstick is price action itself. He said it is not unusual for prices to fall while a golden cross is forming, and explained that bitcoin’s local correction in the first half of September also fits that pattern.

The key is how this recovery to $81,280 ends. Cowen said past cases split into two paths. The first is when, as in 2019 and 2023, the price rebounds and then makes a higher high, breaking the bear-market pattern. In that case, the confirmation signal is breaking through a psychological resistance zone and weekly closes finishing above the 50-week simple moving average.

Cowen said that to break the bearish scenario, bitcoin needs a higher high and weekly closes above the 50-week simple moving average. If those conditions are met, the seller-dominant flow could weaken noticeably, he said.

He said the possibility remains that a pattern similar to 2014 to 2015 could reappear. If rebound momentum weakens from current levels and the price is pushed down sharply, the market could form a lower high. Cowen warned that in that case, rejection at the current price range could support a signal that the bear market is continuing.

That has led to an interpretation that the level of the weekly close is now more important than a short-term surge itself. Rather than chasing buys based only on optimism about the weekend rebound, the market should watch how the weekly close forms near the 50-week simple moving average, it said.

In this context, the rebound is emerging as a test of whether it is merely a technical recovery or the starting point of a medium- to long-term trend reversal. If bitcoin breaks above the 50-week simple moving average on a weekly basis and holds, the bullish scenario could gain traction. If it falls back again from current levels, the golden cross is more likely to remain a trap that draws in optimistic buying before reversing direction.

We are in the rally now after the golden cross dump. A rally to a higher high and weekly closes above the 50W SMA would materially weaken the bear case. A rejection at these levels would still be in line with a bear market continuation https://t.co/JU5pO4FrWb