The share of bitcoin supply that has not moved for more than a year has risen to 63.3 percent, but an analysis said it is hard to interpret that as a direct sign of rising new demand or an ultra-bull market.

As of Sept. 18, Maketo's HODL wave data put the share of bitcoin that has not moved for more than a year at 63.3 percent, blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate reported on Sept. 20. That was up 0.98 percentage points from 62.32 percent on Aug. 18, a month earlier.

The key point is not the increase in long-immobile coins itself, but how that increase was formed. The HODL wave is an indicator that groups bitcoin unspent transaction output (UTXO) values by age based on the last on-chain movement. A higher share means more coins have moved into older bands, but it does not directly prove an inflow of buying in the month or an intentional exit from the market.

A closer look shows the share in the 1 to 2-year band rose 1.05 percentage points to 14.57 percent on Sept. 18 from 13.52 percent on Aug. 18. That was the largest increase within the over-one-year bands. Over the same period, the 6 to 12-month band fell to 17.53 percent from 19.10 percent.

That pattern is seen as the result of existing coins remaining unmoved for more than a year rather than new money flowing in. Coins that last moved about a year ago naturally shift into the 1 to 2-year holding band if they do not move afterwards. Each band's share reflects entries and exits over time, as well as reclassification into the shortest-term band when coins move again. That makes it difficult to gauge actual trading participants or total movement 규모 from this figure alone.

Short-term movement fell instead. The share of bitcoin moved within the past month stood at 7.03 percent as of Sept. 18, down 0.27 percentage points from 7.30 percent a month earlier. That suggests recent on-chain activity has slowed somewhat, but it is not sufficient to conclude that potentially sellable supply has declined.

The last movement timestamp alone cannot reveal actual changes in ownership or holding intent. Transfers between wallets controlled by the same user or a custodian can be counted as newly moved coins and make holdings appear younger. Lost coins can also remain in the oldest bands without indicating intentional long-term holding.

Coinbase illustrates that limitation. Coinbase warned in November 2025 that internal wallet transfers can create large on-chain volumes unrelated to market conditions. It was not identified as the specific cause of the latest change, but it highlights how difficult it is to draw supply-and-demand conclusions from on-chain movement alone.

In the end, what the latest figures show is limited. Bitcoin's on-chain age distribution shifted toward older bands, and the share moved within the past month fell. Separate indicators are needed to determine whether sellable supply has actually declined and whether liquid supply is tightening.

The indicator showed bitcoin supply moving into older bands. It also reaffirmed the limitation that on-chain age distribution alone makes it hard to distinguish between new demand and actual changes in potentially sellable supply.