A fourth-ever bullish cross has occurred on Bitcoin’s monthly Fisher Transform indicator, renewing interest in whether a long-term bottom is forming.

Cointelegraph reported on Aug. 18 that analyst Willy Woo (윌리 우) said the indicator suggests Bitcoin may have already formed a long-term bottom.

Fisher Transform is an indicator that smooths price action to show trend strength. Woo said that whenever the Fisher line and trigger line sharply crossed higher on the monthly chart, it coincided with a Bitcoin bear-market bottom. He added, "Looking at the cases so far, all three Bitcoin bottoms matched without a fake signal. The latest signal is the fourth on record."

This cross occurred in July at the -2.26 level. If the same pattern continues, Bitcoin could enter a new long-term uptrend.

Still, it is difficult to assume a one-way rise immediately. Woo said there have been cases in bull markets where the Fisher indicator showed a bearish cross and then later returned to a bullish cross. He left open the possibility that Bitcoin’s price could move sideways for some time or fall further.

He said the difference comes from the mix of market investors. In long upswings, many speculative traders are sensitive to short-term price moves, making signals more likely to wobble. Near bear-market bottoms, most of those participants exit, raising the reliability of bottom signals, he said.

He also said a bullish structure has been in place on the weekly chart throughout 2026. Fisher Transform hit a low of -2.85 at the end of December last year, when Bitcoin was around $90,000. The indicator has since made higher lows, while the price made lower lows, forming a bullish divergence. The same pattern appeared in 2022 and overlapped with the final six months of Bitcoin’s previous bear market.

Questions remain over whether the 21-month low near $57,000 in early July was the bottom for this cycle. Several on-chain indicators in recent months have signalled a bear-market reversal, but Woo said last week that typical buying interest was lacking at that low. Buying-side activity also suggested that only a small number of large investors were accumulating.

The key point is that the rare bullish cross on the monthly chart and the bullish divergence on the weekly chart were observed together. But with analysis also pointing to limited buyers in the low zone, whether indicator signals align with actual demand has become the key issue.

Published in 2002, Fisher Transform picks up turning points in price action. BTC bottoms: 3 for 3 without fake out. Latest cross is the 4th on record. pic.twitter.com/lFdP1V2JN2